Bitcoin veterans have frozen sales: what lies behind this signal
Investors holding Bitcoin for more than five years — the so-called OGs, or market veterans — have almost completely stopped selling their holdings. This is a landmark event that deserves close attention from all members of the crypto community.
According to my analysis of on-chain data, the 90-day moving average of spent transaction volume for this category of holders has dropped to 962 BTC. Such low levels were last recorded in November 2024. At the current Bitcoin price, long-term holders are clearly choosing a strategy of holding rather than taking profits. This significantly reduces selling pressure on the market.
Historical Selling Peaks: What Happened Before
The current market cycle has already seen the largest sell-offs of coins by veterans in history. To assess their activity, I use the STXO (Spent Transaction Output) metric, which tracks the movement of old Bitcoins on the network. Typically, the movement of such coins implies their subsequent sale.
In my research, I classify investors with a holding period of five years or more as OGs. Their activity can cause significant price fluctuations. The average purchase price of assets for this group is around $63,200, which roughly corresponds to current market quotes.
The 90-day moving average chart clearly shows three major profit-taking peaks that formed after strong growth waves:
- May 2024 — the average reached 3,860 BTC.
- February 2025 — volumes amounted to 3,200 BTC.
- September 2025 — the value was recorded at 2,360 BTC.
Although the three-month averages may seem relatively small, on individual days, movement volumes exceeded 10,000, 30,000, and even 142,000 BTC.
Weakening Seller Pressure: What It Means
Currently, the average 90-day spending volume of OG participants has fallen below 1,000 coins, settling at 962 BTC. This is the lowest level since late autumn 2024. Industry veterans prefer not to sell Bitcoin at current prices, removing an important factor of excess supply from the market.
With a reduced inflow of old coins, the price becomes more dependent on short-term demand and the positions of traders in the derivatives market. This lull likely heralds a period of consolidation or a continuation of the current trend. The behavior of large holders can be considered a moderately positive signal for the market.
Technical Context: Power Law Support
The reduction in sales coincides with another notable technical factor. For the first time in three years, the Bitcoin price has approached the lower support boundary of the Power Law model. This mathematical model describes the asset's long-term trajectory through logarithmic lines. Previously, the price touched this zone only during a deep bear market.
My expert conclusion: The coincidence of two key factors — the halt of sales by OGs and testing of historically strong support — looks very promising. The oldest participants are unwilling to take profits near the breakeven level, and the price has returned to a zone that previously served as a turning point. This creates a foundation for potential recovery, but the final direction will be determined by short-term demand and the macroeconomic backdrop.