Bitcoin veterans have frozen sales: is the market preparing for a trend reversal?
Bitcoin long-term holders, the so-called "OGs" with five years of experience, have almost completely stopped realizing their accumulated holdings. This phenomenon is one of the key signals for the current market conditions.
OG Sales Hit a Minimum
According to my analysis of on-chain data, the 90-day moving average of spent transaction output volume for this category of investors has dropped to 962 BTC. Such low values were last recorded in November 2024. This is direct evidence that at the current BTC price, market veterans prefer a holding strategy rather than profit-taking. Selling pressure from this group has weakened to a minimum.
Historical Sell-off Peaks
The current market cycle has already gone down in history as a period of the most massive coin dumping by long-term investors. For assessment, I use the STXO (Spent Transaction Output) metric, which tracks the movement of old bitcoins on the network. The three largest profit-taking peaks occurred in:
- May 2024 — average indicator of 3860 BTC.
- February 2025 — volumes reached 3200 BTC.
- September 2025 — value recorded at 2360 BTC.
It is important to understand: although the three-month averaged figures look modest, on individual days, movement volumes exceeded 10,000, 30,000, and even 142,000 BTC. This indicates high volatility and targeted but powerful actions by large players.
Reduced Pressure and Shift in Drivers
The decline in long-term holder activity below 1000 coins (currently 962 BTC) removes an important factor of excess supply. Now, the price of bitcoin depends to a greater extent on short-term demand and trader positions in the derivatives market. Such a lull from the "old guard" often precedes either a period of consolidation or a continuation of the current trend. I consider this a moderately positive signal: key stakeholders see no reason to exit into fiat at current prices.
Technical Context: Power Law Support
The reduction in sales coincides with another notable technical factor. Popular analyst sunnydecree noted that for the first time in three years, the price of bitcoin has approached the lower support boundary of the Power Law model. This mathematical model describes the long-term trajectory of the asset through logarithmic lines. Previously, the price touched this zone only during a deep bear market.
The coincidence of two factors—the halt in OG sales and the return of the price to historically strong support—looks very promising. Veterans do not want to lock in profits near the breakeven level, and the price has returned to a powerful support zone. The market is likely preparing for an important move.
My professional opinion: we are observing a classic "seller capitulation" scenario at a level that has historically been a turning point. If short-term demand persists, the current zone could become a launching pad for a new upward impulse.