Bitcoin veterans have stopped selling: is the market preparing for a reversal?
Investors holding Bitcoin for more than five years — so-called OGs, or market veterans — have almost completely stopped selling. This is a historic signal that deserves the close attention of every market participant.
According to on-chain analytics, the 90-day moving average of spent coins by this category of holders has dropped to 962 BTC. The last time such values were recorded was in November 2024. The current trend indicates that long-term holders are consciously choosing a strategy of holding rather than taking profits, even amid current market prices. This significantly reduces selling pressure and creates a healthier supply and demand structure.
Historical Sales Peaks — In the Past?
The current market cycle has already gone down in history as a period of the most massive coin dumping by veterans. For analysis, experts use the STXO (Spent Transaction Output) metric, which tracks the movement of "old" Bitcoins on the network. Typically, any movement of such coins implies their subsequent sale.
In the study, the OG category includes investors with a holding period of five years or more. Their activity can cause strong price fluctuations. Notably, the average purchase price of assets by this group is around $63,200, which is almost in line with current market prices. This means veterans are on the verge of breakeven — and are in no hurry to sell.
The 90-day moving average chart clearly shows three major profit-taking peaks:
- May 2024 — the average was 3,860 BTC.
- February 2025 — volumes reached 3,200 BTC.
- September 2025 — the value was recorded at 2,360 BTC.
All these peaks formed after powerful waves of cryptocurrency growth. However, on certain days, movement volumes exceeded 10,000, 30,000, and even 142,000 BTC.
Weakening Seller Pressure: What Does It Mean?
Currently, the average 90-day spending volume of OG participants has fallen below 1,000 coins, settling at 962 BTC. This is the lowest value since late fall 2024. Industry veterans prefer not to sell Bitcoin at current prices, which significantly reduces market pressure.
The decline in long-term investor activity removes an important factor of excess supply. Conversely, when the inflow of old coins decreases, the price becomes more dependent on short-term demand. The influence of trader positions in the derivatives market also increases. This lull likely heralds a period of consolidation or a continuation of the current trend. Thus, the behavior of large holders can be considered a moderately positive signal.
Trading at the Lower Boundary of the Power Law Model
The reduction in sales coincides with another notable technical factor. Popular analyst sunnydecree noticed a rare signal on the cryptocurrency chart. For the first time in three years, the Bitcoin price has approached the lower support boundary of the Power Law model. This mathematical model describes the asset's long-term trajectory through logarithmic lines. Previously, the price touched this zone only during deep bear markets.
The coincidence of these factors looks very promising. First, the oldest participants do not want to take profits near the breakeven level. Second, the price has returned to historically strong support.
Cryptalist Analytical Conclusion: The behavior of OGs is a classic indicator of "smart money" sentiment. When veterans stop selling at the breakeven level, and the price simultaneously tests the multi-year Power Law support, the market sends a powerful signal of a potential reversal. In the coming weeks, we will likely see consolidation followed by a flow of liquidity from short-term speculators to long-term holders. This is not a guarantee of immediate growth, but the foundation for a new upward movement is being laid right now.