Bitcoin veterans have frozen: OG sales have dropped to a minimum — what this means for the market
The Bitcoin market has encountered a notable phenomenon: investors who have held coins for over five years have virtually stopped selling. These participants, known in the community as OGs (veterans), are demonstrating rare patience, which is significantly altering supply dynamics.
According to on-chain analytics data, the 90-day moving average of the spent coin volume for this group has dropped to 962 BTC. This is the lowest figure since November 2024. At current prices, long-term holders are choosing a strategy of holding rather than taking profits, which significantly eases selling pressure.
Historical Waves of Profit-Taking
The current market cycle has already witnessed the largest sell-offs among veterans in history. The analysis uses the STXO metric, which tracks the movement of old coins on the network — typically a precursor to selling. The OG group includes investors with a holding period of five years or more, whose average purchase price is around $63,200 — close to current quotes.
The 90-day moving average chart clearly shows three major profit-taking peaks, each following a powerful wave of growth:
- May 2024 — the average reached 3,860 BTC.
- February 2025 — volumes amounted to 3,200 BTC.
- September 2025 — the figure was recorded at 2,360 BTC.
Although the three-month averages may seem modest, on individual days, movement volumes exceeded 10,000, 30,000, and even 142,000 BTC.
Weakening Seller Pressure: A Bullish Signal?
The current decline in OG activity to below 1,000 coins is a powerful signal. Veterans are choosing not to sell at current prices, eliminating a key factor of excess supply. The price now depends more heavily on short-term demand and trader positions in the derivatives market.
The coincidence of this trend with another technical factor looks promising. For the first time in three years, the Bitcoin price has approached the lower boundary of the Power Law model — a mathematical model describing the asset's long-term trajectory through logarithmic lines. Previously, the price touched this zone only during deep bear markets.
My Analysis
The combination of two factors — the cessation of selling by the most steadfast holders and a return to historically strong support — creates an extremely favorable foundation for consolidation or a resumption of the upward trend. The behavior of OGs can be considered a moderately positive signal, indicating market maturity and faith in Bitcoin's long-term potential. Currently, the key driver is not supply, but demand — and that is what should be monitored in the coming weeks.