Bitcoin veterans have stopped selling: what this means for the market
Investors holding Bitcoin for more than five years have almost completely stopped selling. These market participants, known as OG (veterans), are exhibiting unique behavior that could signal a shift in the market cycle.
According to on-chain analytics data, the 90-day moving average of spent coins among this group has dropped to 962 BTC—the lowest level since November 2024. This means that at the current asset price, long-term holders are consciously choosing a holding strategy rather than taking profits. Thus, selling pressure from the most experienced market participants has significantly weakened.
Historical Records and Current Calm
The current market cycle has already seen the largest sell-off of coins by veterans in history. Analysts use the STXO (Spent Transaction Output) metric, which tracks the movement of old bitcoins on the network. Typically, the movement of such coins precedes their subsequent sale.
The OG group includes investors with a holding period of five years or more. Their activity can cause strong price fluctuations. The average purchase price of assets by this group is around $63,200, which roughly corresponds to current market quotes.
The 90-day moving average chart clearly shows three major profit-taking peaks:
- May 2024—the average was 3,860 BTC.
- February 2025—volumes reached 3,200 BTC.
- September 2025—the value was recorded at 2,360 BTC.
Although the three-month averages may seem relatively small, on individual days, movement volumes exceeded 10,000, 30,000, and even 142,000 BTC.
Weakening Selling Pressure
Currently, the average 90-day spending volume of OG participants has fallen below 1,000 coins—the indicator stands at 962 BTC. This is the lowest value since late autumn 2024. Industry veterans prefer not to sell Bitcoin at current prices, reducing market pressure.
The decline in long-term investor activity removes an important factor of excess supply. Now, the price is more dependent on short-term demand, and the influence of trader positions in the derivatives market is increasing. This calm likely heralds a period of consolidation or a continuation of the current trend.
Trading at the Lower Boundary of the Power Law Model
The reduction in sales coincides with another notable technical factor. For the first time in three years, the Bitcoin price has approached the lower support boundary of the Power Law model. This mathematical model describes the asset's long-term trajectory through logarithmic lines. Previously, the price touched this zone only during deep bear markets.
The coincidence of these factors looks very promising. The oldest participants do not want to lock in profits near the breakeven level, and the price has returned to historically strong support.
My expert conclusion: The behavior of veterans is not just statistics but a clear signal of confidence in the asset's long-term prospects. When the most experienced players stop selling at their average entry price level, it indicates an expectation of higher prices. Combined with the approach to the powerful Power Law support, the current situation forms a bullish scenario, although it requires confirmation from volumes and the macroeconomic backdrop.