Bitcoin veterans have frozen sales: what lies behind this signal
Investors holding Bitcoin for more than five years — the so-called OGs, or market veterans — have almost completely stopped selling their assets. This is a key signal I have been tracking in recent weeks, and it deserves close attention.
According to my on-chain data analysis, the 90-day moving average of the volume of coins spent by these participants has dropped to 962 BTC. This is the lowest level since November 2024. At the current price of Bitcoin, long-term holders are consciously choosing a holding strategy, significantly easing seller pressure on the market.
Historical Sales Records and the Current Lull
The current market cycle has already seen the largest sell-off of coins by veterans in history. To assess this phenomenon, I use the STXO metric, which tracks the movement of old Bitcoins on the network. Typically, the movement of such coins precedes their subsequent sale. The average purchase price of assets for this group was around $63,200, which roughly corresponds to current market quotes.
The 90-day moving average chart clearly shows three major profit-taking peaks that formed after powerful waves of cryptocurrency growth:
- May 2024 — the average stood at 3,860 BTC.
- February 2025 — volumes reached 3,200 BTC.
- September 2025 — the value was recorded at 2,360 BTC.
It is important to note that while the three-month averages may seem relatively small, on individual days, movement volumes exceeded 10,000, 30,000, and even 142,000 BTC.
Weakening Seller Pressure
Currently, the average 90-day spending volume of OG participants has fallen below 1,000 coins, settling at 962 BTC. This is the lowest figure since late autumn 2024. Industry veterans prefer not to sell Bitcoin at current prices, which directly reduces market pressure.
The decline in long-term investor activity removes an important factor of excess supply. Conversely, with a reduced inflow of old coins, the price becomes more dependent on short-term demand. The influence of trader positions in the derivatives market also increases. This lull likely heralds a period of consolidation or a continuation of the current trend. In any case, the behavior of large holders can be considered a moderately positive signal.
Trading at the Lower Boundary of the Power Law Model
The reduction in sales coincides with another notable technical factor. Popular analyst sunnydecree noted a rare signal on the cryptocurrency chart. For the first time in three years, the Bitcoin price has approached the lower support boundary of the Power Law model. This mathematical model describes the asset's long-term trajectory through logarithmic lines. Previously, the price touched this zone only during deep bear markets.
The coincidence of these two factors looks very promising. Firstly, the oldest participants are unwilling to lock in profits near the breakeven level. Secondly, the price has returned to a historically strong support level.
My professional opinion: The combination of a sharp decline in sales by OGs and a touch of the Power Law lower boundary is a rare and powerful bullish signal. The market appears to be preparing for an accumulation phase, which could be a prelude to a new upward move. However, given macroeconomic uncertainty, relying solely on on-chain data would be imprudent. Keep an eye on trading volume and the dynamics of open interest in futures.