Bitcoin veterans have gone silent: OG sales have dropped to a minimum — what does this mean for the market?
Investors holding Bitcoin for more than five years, known in the community as OGs or market veterans, have virtually stopped selling their holdings. This sharp decline in activity among long-term holders is one of the most significant signals for the current market environment.
According to my analysis of on-chain data, the 90-day moving average of spent coins by this group has dropped to 962 BTC. This is the lowest level since November 2024. Veterans, whose average purchase price is around $63,200, prefer to hold their assets rather than lock in profits or losses at current prices. Thus, selling pressure from the market's "old blood" has significantly weakened.
Record Waves of Profit-Taking Are a Thing of the Past
The current market cycle has already seen the largest sell-offs by OGs in history. For my analysis, I use the STXO (Spent Transaction Output) metric, which tracks the movement of old Bitcoins on the network—typically a precursor to selling. Over the past year and a half, we have observed three major peaks:
- May 2024 — the average stood at 3,860 BTC.
- February 2025 — volumes reached 3,200 BTC.
- September 2025 — the figure was recorded at 2,360 BTC.
It is important to understand that these three-month averages are just the tip of the iceberg. On certain days, movement volumes exceeded 10,000, 30,000, and even 142,000 BTC. However, activity has now fallen below 1,000 coins, indicating a complete lull from this key group.
Weakening Supply and a Technical Signal
The decline in activity among long-term investors removes a significant factor of excess supply. Bitcoin's price is now much more dependent on short-term demand and trader positions in the derivatives market. This lull likely heralds a period of consolidation or a continuation of the current trend. The behavior of large holders can be considered a moderately positive signal.
Notably, this coincides with a rare technical event. Bitcoin's price has approached the lower support boundary of the Power Law model for the first time in three years. Previously, the asset touched this zone only during a deep bear market. The coincidence of two factors—OGs' reluctance to sell near the breakeven level and the price returning to historically strong support—looks very promising.
My professional opinion: We are witnessing a classic accumulation pattern. Veterans are in no hurry to part with their coins despite the volatility. If short-term demand persists, the current zone could serve as a foundation for a new upward move. However, one should not discount potential manipulation by major market makers. The market remains extremely sensitive to external shocks.