Bitcoin veterans are entering "hibernation": seller pressure has sharply eased
Investors holding Bitcoin for more than five years — the so-called OGs (market veterans) — have almost completely stopped selling. According to on-chain data analytics, the volume of coins they are moving has dropped to its lowest levels since November 2024. This is a powerful signal of a shift in sentiment among the "old guard" of the crypto community.
The key metric for assessing the activity of long-term holders is the STXO (Spent Transaction Output) indicator, which tracks the movement of "old" coins. Typically, the movement of such UTXOs implies a subsequent sale. However, the last three months show a completely opposite picture.
The 90-day moving average of the volume of coins spent by veterans has dropped to 962 BTC. This is the lowest figure since late autumn 2024. For comparison: during periods of active sell-offs, this indicator soared to extreme values. For example, in May 2024, the average sales volume was 3,860 BTC, in February 2025 — 3,200 BTC, and in September 2025 — 2,360 BTC. On certain days, movement volumes exceeded 10,000, 30,000, and even 142,000 BTC.
The current lull means that veterans see no point in taking profits at current prices, which are near their average purchase price (~$63,200). They prefer to hold the asset rather than sell it. This drastically reduces selling pressure and removes an important factor of excess supply from the market.
The market is now in a unique situation: OG activity is minimal, while the Bitcoin price is trading near the lower boundary of the Power Law model. As noted by well-known analyst sunnydecree, for the first time in three years, the price has approached this historical support zone. Previously, such touches only occurred during deep "bear" markets.
The coincidence of these two factors looks extremely promising. On one hand, we see long-term investors refusing to sell near the breakeven level. On the other, there is a technical signal indicating strong support. This could mean that the market is consolidating before a new move, or that the current trend will continue.
My professional conclusion: The behavior of veterans is one of the most reliable indicators. Their shift from taking profits to accumulation is a moderately bullish signal, suggesting that current levels are perceived by major players as a zone of long-term value. If institutional demand resumes on top of this, we could witness the beginning of a new growth phase.