Bitcoin veterans have frozen sales: is the market preparing for a reversal?
Investors holding Bitcoin for more than five years — so-called OGs (market veterans) — have almost completely stopped selling. This is a key signal indicating a shift in market dynamics and a weakening of selling pressure from long-term holders.
According to my analysis of CryptoQuant data, the 90-day moving average of the volume of coins spent by these participants has dropped to 962 BTC. This is the lowest level since November 2024. For comparison, at the peak of sales in May 2024, the average volume reached 3,860 BTC; in February 2025 — 3,200 BTC; and in September 2025 — 2,360 BTC. On certain days, movement volumes exceeded 10,000, 30,000, and even 142,000 BTC.
This sharp slowdown in veteran activity means they prefer to hold assets rather than lock in profits at current prices. The average purchase price for this group is around $63,200, which roughly corresponds to current market levels. This suggests that OGs do not see sufficient potential for selling now and are likely waiting for higher prices.
Weakening Seller Pressure and a New Balance of Power
The decline in sales from long-term holders removes an important factor of excess supply. Now, Bitcoin's price depends more on short-term demand and trader positions in the derivatives market. Such a lull often precedes a period of consolidation or a continuation of the current trend. I consider this behavior from large holders to be a moderately positive signal.
Additionally, the coincidence of this factor with another technical signal looks particularly promising. Popular analyst sunnydecree noted that Bitcoin's price has approached the lower support boundary of the Power Law model for the first time in three years. This mathematical model describes the asset's long-term trajectory through logarithmic lines. Previously, the price touched this zone only during deep bear markets.
The coincidence of two factors — the cessation of sales by veterans and a return to historically strong support — creates an extremely interesting picture. First, OGs do not want to lock in losses or minimal profits. Second, the price has returned to a zone that previously served as a turning point. This could indicate the market preparing for a new upward movement. However, it is worth remembering that the cryptocurrency market remains volatile, and any scenario is possible.
My opinion: The current situation is a classic example of accumulation. Veterans, who have seen more than one cycle, are clearly in no hurry to part with their coins. If this trend continues, and demand from institutional and retail traders keeps growing, we could witness the formation of a new bullish impulse. However, the key trigger will be a breakout of the resistance level, which will confirm the market's intentions.