Bitcoin veterans have frozen sales: a signal of a trend change?
Investors holding Bitcoin for more than five years have almost completely stopped taking profits. This group of market participants, known as OG (veterans), is exhibiting rare behavior that could indicate fundamental changes in supply and demand dynamics.
According to on-chain analytics, the 90-day moving average of the volume of coins spent by veterans has dropped to 962 BTC. This is the lowest level since November 2024. At the current BTC price, long-term holders are choosing a strategy of holding rather than selling, which significantly eases selling pressure.
The current market cycle has already seen record sell-off volumes from this cohort. Analysts use the STXO (Spent Transaction Output) metric, which tracks the movement of old coins on the network. The movement of such assets typically precedes their subsequent sale. The average purchase price for this group is around $63,200, which roughly corresponds to current quotes. This is a key point: selling at these prices does not yield significant profit, so veterans prefer to wait.
The 90-day moving average chart clearly shows three major profit-taking peaks that formed after powerful growth waves:
- May 2024 — the average sales volume was 3,860 BTC.
- February 2025 — volumes reached 3,200 BTC.
- September 2025 — the figure settled at 2,360 BTC.
It is important to understand: although the three-month averages seem modest, on individual days, movement volumes exceeded 10,000, 30,000, and even 142,000 BTC. The current lull is a stark contrast against this volatility.
Easing Selling Pressure and Technical Signals
Now that the average 90-day spending volume has fallen below 1,000 coins (to 962 BTC), veterans have effectively removed a significant factor of excess supply. This means Bitcoin's price now depends more heavily on short-term demand and trader positions in the derivatives market. Such a lull often precedes either a period of consolidation or a continuation of the current trend. The behavior of large holders can be considered a moderately positive signal.
Notably, the reduction in sales coincides with another rare technical factor. Popular analyst sunnydecree noted that for the first time in three years, Bitcoin's price has approached the lower support boundary of the Power Law model. This mathematical model describes the asset's long-term trajectory through logarithmic lines. Previously, the price touched this zone only during deep bear markets.
The coincidence of two factors—veterans refraining from selling and the price returning to historically strong support—looks very promising. The oldest market participants are unwilling to lock in profits near the breakeven level, and the price has returned to a zone that has historically served as a bottom. This is a classic combination for forming a reversal pattern.
My analysis: The current behavior of the OGs is not just a pause. It is a strategic wait. If the Power Law model holds and short-term demand remains stable, we could see the formation of a new upward phase. However, investors should remember: the calm before the storm is not always a storm. The market may continue to consolidate until a catalyst for movement emerges. For now, the signal is moderately bullish.