Bitcoin veterans fall silent: OG sales drop to a minimum — what this means for the market
Investors holding Bitcoin for more than five years have virtually stopped selling their holdings. These market participants, known in the crypto community as OGs or veterans, are demonstrating rare patience, which is fundamentally changing supply dynamics.
According to the latest data, the 90-day moving average of spent coins from this group has dropped to 962 BTC. This is the lowest level since November 2024. At the current BTC price, long-term holders are choosing to hold rather than take profits. Thus, they are significantly reducing selling pressure, creating a more favorable environment for buyers.
Historical Record Sales by Bitcoin Veterans
The current market cycle has seen the largest sell-off of coins by veterans in history. For analysis, experts use the STXO metric, which tracks the movement of old Bitcoins on the network. Typically, the movement of such coins indicates their subsequent sale.
In the study, the OG cohort includes investors with a cryptocurrency holding period of five years or more. Their activity can cause strong fluctuations in the market price. The peak purchase price of assets by this group was around $63,200 — a level roughly corresponding to current market quotes.
On the 90-day moving average chart, three major profit-taking peaks are clearly visible. All of them formed after powerful waves of cryptocurrency growth:
- May 2024 — the average was 3,860 BTC.
- February 2025 — volumes reached 3,200 BTC.
- September 2025 — the value was recorded at 2,360 BTC.
The three-month averages may seem relatively small. However, on individual days, movement volumes exceeded 10,000, 30,000, and even 142,000 BTC.
Easing of Seller Pressure in the Market
Currently, the average 90-day spending volume of OG participants has fallen below 1,000 coins, standing at 962 BTC. This is the lowest level since late autumn 2024. Industry veterans prefer not to sell Bitcoin at current prices, which reduces market pressure.
The decline in long-term investor activity removes an important factor of excess supply. Conversely, when the inflow of old coins decreases, the price becomes more dependent on short-term demand. The influence of trader positions in the derivatives market also increases. This lull likely heralds a period of consolidation or a continuation of the current trend.
Trading at the Lower Boundary of the Power Law Model
The reduction in sales coincides with another notable technical factor. A popular analyst noted a rare signal on the cryptocurrency chart: for the first time in three years, the Bitcoin price approached the lower support boundary of the Power Law model. This mathematical model describes the asset's long-term trajectory through logarithmic lines. Previously, the price touched this zone only during a deep bear market.
The coincidence of these factors looks very promising. First, the oldest participants do not want to take profits near the breakeven level. Second, the price has returned to historically strong support.
My expert conclusion: the behavior of large holders can be considered a moderately positive signal. However, one should not forget that macroeconomic uncertainty and market liquidity remain key variables capable of disrupting this fragile balance.