Bitcoin veterans have frozen sales: is the market preparing for a reversal?
A key signal for the market has come from the most steadfast participants. Investors who have held Bitcoin for over five years have almost completely stopped taking profits. An analysis of on-chain data shows that the 90-day moving average of the volume of spent coins from this group (OG) has dropped to 962 BTC. This is the lowest level since November 2024.
This behavior of the "veterans" sharply contrasts with the activity seen in previous cycle phases. Over the past year and a half, we have recorded three powerful waves of distribution: in May 2024 (average of 3,860 BTC), in February 2025 (3,200 BTC), and in September 2025 (2,360 BTC). On peak days, the volume of old coins moved reached 10,000, 30,000, and even 142,000 BTC.
Reduction in Selling Pressure
The current lull from long-term holders represents the removal of one of the main factors of excess supply. The average purchase price for this cohort is around $63,200, which practically coincides with current quotes. This means the veterans see no point in taking profits at the breakeven level. Now, the price dynamics will depend to a much greater extent on short-term demand and the positioning of traders in derivatives.
This fact can be regarded as a moderately positive signal. It indicates that large "smart money" does not expect a deep correction and prefers to maintain positions. However, it also increases the market's vulnerability to sudden movements from more speculative participants.
Technical Context: Return to the Power Law
The decline in OG selling coincides with another rare technical event. The Bitcoin price has approached the lower support boundary of the Power Law model for the first time in three years. This logarithmic model describes the long-term trajectory of the asset, and previously the price touched this zone only during deep bear markets.
The coincidence of two factors—the reluctance of long-term holders to sell at the breakeven level and a return to historically strong support—creates a potentially explosive mix. If short-term demand manifests itself, we could see a sharp rebound. Otherwise, the market will enter a phase of prolonged consolidation.
My opinion: The behavior of the "old guard" is a classic sign of accumulation, not panic. They have survived more than one cycle and likely see long-term value above current levels. However, investors should remember that the calm before the storm can be deceptive. The key trigger for movement will be either a sharp surge in buying volumes or, conversely, a break below the lower boundary of the Power Law model, which would open the door to a deeper correction.