Bitcoin veterans have stopped taking profits: a signal for growth or calm before the storm?
The cryptocurrency market is witnessing a remarkable shift in the behavior of its most experienced participants. Investors who have held Bitcoin for over five years—the so-called OGs or market veterans—have almost completely stopped selling. This event deserves close analysis, as the actions of this group have traditionally had a significant impact on price dynamics.
According to my on-chain data analysis, the 90-day moving average of the volume of coins spent by this cohort has dropped to 962 BTC. Such low levels were last recorded in November 2024. With current prices near the average acquisition cost of these assets (around $63,200), long-term holders are consciously choosing a strategy of holding rather than taking profits. This significantly reduces selling pressure.
Historical Peaks and Current Calm
The current market cycle has already seen record volumes of coin distribution by veterans. The STXO (Spent Transaction Output) metric is used to assess this process, tracking the movement of old Bitcoins, which typically precedes their sale.
The 90-day moving average chart clearly shows three major profit-taking peaks, each following a powerful wave of growth:
- May 2024: The average reached 3,860 BTC.
- February 2025: Volumes amounted to 3,200 BTC.
- September 2025: The value settled at 2,360 BTC.
It is important to understand that the three-month averaged figures may seem modest. However, on individual days, movement volumes exceeded 10,000, 30,000, and even 142,000 BTC. The current decline to 962 BTC is not just a correction but a fundamental shift in sentiment.
Weakening Sellers and a Technical Signal
The decline in long-term investor activity removes a critically important factor of excess supply. Now, Bitcoin's price depends much more on short-term demand and the positions of traders in the derivatives market. This could herald either a period of consolidation or a continuation of the current trend, and I tend to view it as a moderately positive signal.
Notably, this slowdown in selling has coincided with another rare technical event. Popular analyst sunnydecree pointed out that Bitcoin's price has approached the lower support boundary of the Power Law model for the first time in three years. This mathematical model describes the asset's long-term trajectory through logarithmic lines. Previously, touching this zone only occurred during a deep bear market.
My conclusion: The coincidence of two factors—veterans' reluctance to take profits near the breakeven level and the price returning to historically strong support—looks very promising. The oldest market participants see no reason to sell, and the price is testing a multi-year level. This is not a guarantee of immediate growth, but the fundamental foundation for it is becoming significantly stronger. The market's attention is now focused on the reaction of short-term speculators.