Bitcoin veterans have frozen sales: what lies behind this signal
Investors holding Bitcoin for more than five years have almost completely stopped selling their holdings. These market participants, known in the crypto community as OGs, or industry veterans, are demonstrating rare patience, which is fundamentally changing the balance of power in the market.
According to on-chain analytics data, the 90-day moving average of the volume of spent coins by this group has dropped to 962 BTC. This is the lowest value since November 2024. At the current Bitcoin price, long-term holders are consciously choosing a strategy of holding rather than taking profits. Thus, they are significantly reducing selling pressure, which was previously one of the key drivers of corrections.
Historical Sales Peaks and Current Lull
The current market cycle has already seen the largest sell-off of coins by veterans in history. For analysis, experts use the STXO metric, which tracks the movement of old Bitcoin on the network. Typically, the movement of such coins signals an upcoming sale.
In the study, the OG cohort includes investors with a cryptocurrency holding period of five years or more. Their activity can cause strong price fluctuations. The average purchase price of assets for this group is around $63,200, which roughly corresponds to current market quotes.
The 90-day moving average chart clearly shows three major profit-taking peaks, each formed after powerful waves of growth:
- May 2024 — the average figure was 3,860 BTC.
- February 2025 — volumes reached 3,200 BTC.
- September 2025 — the value was recorded at 2,360 BTC.
The three-month averaged values may seem relatively small. However, on individual days, the volumes of movements exceeded 10,000, 30,000, and even 142,000 BTC.
Weakening Selling Pressure and Technical Context
The current decline in activity among long-term investors removes an important factor of excess supply. With a reduced inflow of old coins, the price becomes more dependent on short-term demand, and the influence of trader positions in the derivatives market also increases. This lull likely heralds a period of consolidation or a continuation of the current trend. Thus, the behavior of large holders can be considered a moderately positive signal.
The reduction in sales coincided with another notable technical factor. Popular analyst sunnydecree noted a rare signal on the cryptocurrency's chart. For the first time in three years, Bitcoin's price approached the lower support boundary of the Power Law model. This mathematical model describes the asset's long-term trajectory through logarithmic lines. Previously, the price touched this zone only during a deep bear market.
The coincidence of these factors looks very promising. Firstly, the oldest participants do not want to lock in profits near the breakeven level. Secondly, the price has returned to historically strong support.
Analyst Comment: The behavior of OGs is classic "smart" capital. When the oldest and most experienced players stop selling even at current prices, it suggests that they either expect significantly higher levels or see no point in locking in profits that are unsatisfactory to them. Combined with the test of the lower boundary of the Power Law, this creates a fundamental basis for a potential reversal or, at the very least, for strong consolidation. The market is currently at a bifurcation point, and the silence of the veterans is a loud signal.