Bitcoin veterans have frozen sales: what lies behind the silence of long-term holders
Investors holding Bitcoin for more than five years have almost completely stopped selling. This category of market participants, known as OG (veterans), is showing record-low profit-taking activity, fundamentally changing the balance of power in the market.
According to on-chain analytics, the 90-day moving average of the volume of coins spent by veterans has dropped to 962 BTC. This is the lowest value since November 2024. At the current Bitcoin price, long-term holders are clearly choosing a strategy of holding rather than selling, which significantly weakens selling pressure.
Historical Profit-Taking Peaks
The current market cycle has already seen the largest coin dumps by veterans in history. The analysis uses the STXO (Spent Transaction Output) metric, which tracks the movement of old Bitcoins on the network. Typically, the movement of such coins signals subsequent selling.
The OG category includes investors with a holding period of five years or more. Their activity can cause strong price fluctuations. The average purchase price of assets for this group was around $63,200, which is almost in line with current market quotes.
The 90-day moving average chart clearly shows three major profit-taking peaks:
- May 2024 — the average value was 3,860 BTC.
- February 2025 — volumes reached 3,200 BTC.
- September 2025 — the value was recorded at 2,360 BTC.
Although the three-month averages may seem relatively small, on individual days, movement volumes exceeded 10,000, 30,000, and even 142,000 BTC.
Weakening Sellers and a Signal for the Market
Currently, the average 90-day spending volume of OG participants has fallen below 1,000 coins, settling at 962 BTC. This is the lowest figure since late fall 2024. Industry veterans prefer not to sell Bitcoin at current prices, which reduces market pressure.
The decline in long-term investor activity removes an important factor of excess supply. Conversely, when the inflow of old coins decreases, the price becomes more dependent on short-term demand and trader positions in the derivatives market. This lull likely heralds a period of consolidation or a continuation of the current trend.
Technical Signal: Lower Bound of the Power Law
The reduction in sales coincides with another notable technical factor. For the first time in three years, the Bitcoin price has approached the lower support boundary of the Power Law model. This mathematical model describes the asset's long-term trajectory through logarithmic lines. Previously, the price touched this zone only during a deep bear market.
The coincidence of these factors looks very promising. First, the oldest participants do not want to lock in profits near the breakeven level. Second, the price has returned to historically strong support.
Expert Conclusion: The freeze in sales by OGs is not just a statistical anomaly, but a clear signal of a shift in market sentiment. Veterans who have survived more than one cycle clearly see potential for growth above current levels. If we add the technical support of the Power Law to this, the market gets a rare combination of fundamental and technical factors that historically preceded significant upward movements.