Bitcoin veterans have frozen sales: what lies behind the sharp decline in activity among OG holders?
Key signal for the market: long-term bitcoin holders, known as OGs (veterans), have virtually stopped realizing their holdings. This behavior sharply contrasts with previous cycle phases and indicates a shift in sentiment among the most experienced group of investors.
On-chain data analysis shows that the 90-day moving average of the spent volume of coins by this cohort has dropped to 962 BTC. The last time such values were recorded was in November 2024. Given that the average purchase price for this group is around $63,200 — a level close to current quotes — it becomes obvious: veterans are choosing a strategy of holding rather than profit-taking. This significantly weakens selling pressure on the market.
Historical profit-taking peaks
The current market cycle has already seen record volumes of coin dumping by OGs. The STXO (Spent Transaction Output) metric is used to assess this process, tracking the movement of "old" bitcoins. The three largest waves of profit-taking occurred in May 2024 (average 3,860 BTC), February 2025 (3,200 BTC), and September 2025 (2,360 BTC). On certain days, movement volumes exceeded 10,000, 30,000, and even 142,000 BTC.
Now, activity has dropped to a minimum. The three-month average of 962 BTC is a frankly low figure, indicating that veterans see no reason to sell at current prices.
Weakening pressure and technical context
The decline in long-term investor activity removes one of the most important factors of excess supply. Now, bitcoin's price depends more on short-term demand and trader positions in the derivatives market. This lull could herald a period of consolidation or a continuation of the current trend. The behavior of large holders in this situation can be considered a moderately positive signal.
Notably, this coincides with another rare technical factor. Bitcoin's price has approached the lower support boundary of the Power Law model for the first time in three years. This mathematical model describes the asset's long-term trajectory through logarithmic lines. Previously, touching this zone occurred only during deep bear markets.
The coincidence of two factors — the cessation of sales by OGs and the return of price to historically strong support — looks very promising. Veterans do not want to lock in profits near the breakeven level, and the technical picture points to a potential reversal zone.
My comment: The behavior of OG holders is a classic "smart money" indicator. Their reluctance to sell at current levels speaks to a belief in bitcoin's long-term potential. Combined with the approach to the lower boundary of the Power Law, the market may be on the verge of a significant upward move. However, it's worth remembering that the calm before the storm can be deceptive, and short-term demand now plays a key role.