Bitcoin veterans freeze: OG investor sales have plummeted to their lowest level since November 2024
Key signal for the market: long-term Bitcoin holders (OGs), who have owned coins for more than five years, have virtually stopped selling. The 90-day moving average of their spent UTXO volume (STXO) has dropped to 962 BTC — the lowest level since November 2024. This behavior by the "old guard" indicates a shift in sentiment: instead of taking profits, they are choosing a holding strategy, which significantly reduces selling pressure on the market.
Three historical sell-off peaks
The current market cycle has already seen record volumes of coin dumping by veterans. Analyzing the STXO metric, which tracks the movement of "old" Bitcoins (usually preceding a sale), we see three major waves of profit-taking:
- May 2024 — the average reached 3,860 BTC.
- February 2025 — volumes amounted to 3,200 BTC.
- September 2025 — the value was recorded at 2,360 BTC.
It is important to understand: although the three-month averages look modest, on individual days movement volumes exceeded 10,000, 30,000, and even 142,000 BTC. This suggests that OG investors actively used periods of strong growth to cash out. However, this process has now virtually stopped.
Weakening supply and growing influence of traders
The decline in long-term investor activity below the 1,000 BTC per day mark removes a significant factor of excess supply. Now, Bitcoin's price depends much more on short-term demand and trader positions in the derivatives market. The average purchase price for this group is around $63,200, which almost coincides with current quotes. Veterans are refusing to take profits at the breakeven level, which can be seen as a moderately positive signal, foreshadowing either a period of consolidation or a continuation of the current trend.
Technical context: return to the lower boundary of the Power Law
The reduction in selling coincides with another notable technical factor. For the first time in three years, Bitcoin's price has approached the lower support boundary of the Power Law model — a mathematical model describing the asset's long-term trajectory through logarithmic lines. Previously, touching this zone occurred exclusively during a deep bear market. The coincidence of two factors — the halt in OG selling and a return to historically strong support — looks very promising.
Expert comment from Cryptalist: Veteran behavior is one of the most reliable indicators. When "smart money" stops selling at their average entry price level, it signals belief in long-term potential. However, one should not forget that the reduction in on-chain pressure makes the market more susceptible to manipulation by derivatives. We are entering a phase where the decisive factor will be not so much the supply of old coins, but rather the dynamics of open interest in futures.