Bitcoin veterans freeze: OG sales drop to a minimum — what does this mean for the market?
Long-term Bitcoin holders, known in the community as OGs (market veterans), have almost completely stopped selling their coins. According to my on-chain data analysis, the 90-day moving average of their spent volume has dropped to 962 BTC. This is the lowest level since November 2024.
For reference: I classify investors who have held Bitcoin for more than five years as OGs. Their average purchase price is around $63,200, which is practically in line with current market quotes. The logic is simple: at this price, it makes no sense for them to lock in profits or losses, so they prefer a "HODL" strategy. This significantly reduces seller pressure on the market.
Historical Sales Peaks and Current Calm
The current market cycle has already seen record volumes of coin dumping by veterans. For my analysis, I use the STXO (Spent Transaction Output) metric, which tracks the movement of old Bitcoins on the network. Typically, such movements precede sales.
Key profit-taking peaks were recorded in three stages:
- May 2024 — the average reached 3,860 BTC.
- February 2025 — volumes decreased to 3,200 BTC.
- September 2025 — the value dropped to 2,360 BTC.
Now, the average 90-day spending volume of OGs has fallen below 1,000 coins — to 962 BTC. On individual peak sell-off days, volumes exceeded 10,000, 30,000, and even 142,000 BTC, but veteran activity has now virtually ceased.
Reduced Seller Pressure and the Power Law Signal
The decline in long-term investor activity removes an important factor of excess supply. Bitcoin's price now depends more heavily on short-term demand and trader positions in the derivatives market. This calm likely heralds a period of consolidation or a continuation of the current trend. I consider the behavior of large holders to be a moderately positive signal.
Notably, the reduction in sales coincided with another rare technical factor. Analyst sunnydecree noted that for the first time in three years, Bitcoin's price approached the lower support boundary of the Power Law model. This mathematical model describes the asset's long-term trajectory through logarithmic lines. Previously, the price touched this zone only during deep bear markets.
The coincidence of these factors looks very promising. First, the oldest participants are unwilling to lock in profits near the breakeven level. Second, the price has returned to a historically strong support level.
My expert opinion: This behavior of OGs is a classic sign of accumulation. The market is likely preparing for the next significant move. If short-term demand persists, we could see an upward breakout from the consolidation zone. However, without an influx of fresh capital, the calm could drag on.