Bitcoin veterans have frozen sales: a signal of a market reversal?
Long-term bitcoin holders, known in the community as OGs (veterans), have almost completely stopped selling their coins. This trend is fundamentally changing the balance of power in the market and indicates a shift in sentiment among the most steadfast participants.
According to the latest analysis, the 90-day moving average of the spent output age (STXO) of veteran coins has dropped to 962 BTC. This is the lowest value since November 2024. Simply put, investors who have held bitcoin for more than five years prefer to hold the asset rather than lock in profits at current prices. This significantly weakens selling pressure.
Historical Dump Records and a New Reality
The current market cycle has already gone down in history as a period of the most massive coin dumping by veterans. The analysis uses the STXO (Spent Output Age) metric, which tracks the movement of old bitcoins on the network. Typically, any movement of such coins signals a subsequent sale.
During the cycle, three powerful waves of profit-taking were recorded:
- May 2024 — the average figure was 3,860 BTC.
- February 2025 — volumes reached 3,200 BTC.
- September 2025 — the value settled at 2,360 BTC.
Although the three-month averages look relatively modest, on certain days, movement volumes exceeded 10,000, 30,000, and even 142,000 BTC. The current lull contrasts sharply with these peaks.
Weakening Selling Pressure
The drop in the average activity of long-term investors below 1,000 BTC per day is a powerful bullish signal. It removes a key factor of excess supply. Now, the price of bitcoin depends much more on short-term demand and the positions of traders in the derivatives market.
From my perspective, this behavior by the OGs can be seen as a moderately positive signal. Veterans see no reason to sell the asset near the breakeven zone, which indicates their confidence in the long-term potential. This likely heralds a period of consolidation or a continuation of the current upward trend.
Technical Factor: Power Law Support
The reduction in selling coincides with another notable technical event. For the first time in three years, the price of bitcoin has approached the lower support boundary of the Power Law model. Previously, touching this zone only occurred during deep bear markets. This is a mathematical model that describes the long-term trajectory of an asset through logarithmic lines.
The coincidence of these two factors—the cessation of selling by veterans and the testing of historically strong support—looks extremely promising. This creates a solid foundation for a potential reversal and a new phase of growth.
Expert Summary from Cryptalist: The market has received a rare combination of fundamental and technical signals. Veterans, who have survived more than one cycle, are in no hurry to part with their coins near the lower boundary of the long-term channel. This indicates a high degree of confidence. If short-term demand persists, we may witness the formation of a new upward wave. However, investors should remember that low liquidity from OGs could make the market more volatile to sudden movements.