The U.S. Senate has limited Trump's military powers regarding Iran: Bitcoin and markets remained indifferent.
On Tuesday, the U.S. Senate passed a joint resolution aimed at limiting President Donald Trump's military powers in the context of the conflict with Iran. However, contrary to the expectations of some market participants, bitcoin (BTC), traditionally positioned as a safe-haven asset against geopolitical risks, showed virtually no reaction to this event.
This decision marked the first time in history that both chambers of Congress passed a joint resolution on war powers. Nevertheless, investors and traders perceived it as a mere formality. The key reason is that a de facto truce between Washington and Tehran was reached several weeks ago.
A historic decision already priced in by markets
Four Republicans — Bill Cassidy, Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski, and Rand Paul — supported the resolution alongside Democrats. Only Democrat John Fetterman voted against it. Notably, Congress had previously attempted to invoke the 1973 War Powers Act against a sitting president. In 2020, after the strike on Soleimani, the Senate approved a binding measure on Iran, but Trump vetoed it.
This time, it involves a concurrent resolution, which does not go to the president for signature and carries no legal force. The vote took place after a truce was reached between the U.S. and Iran earlier this month, when the Strait of Hormuz reopened and oil prices fell from the peak levels triggered by the conflict.
Both stocks and oil had already priced in the earlier relief from the truce long before Tuesday's session. The White House called the decision meaningless, emphasizing that "concurrent resolutions do not go to the president and have no legal force."
Bitcoin goes its own way
At the time of writing this review, bitcoin is trading at $62,667, losing approximately 2.5% over the past day. Its price dynamics recently reflect internal processes in the crypto market rather than political events in the U.S.
The beginning of June was marked by a record-scale outflow of funds from U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs: over 13 trading days, investors withdrew about $4.4 billion. This outflow became the longest since the launch of these instruments in January 2024. The largest fund, BlackRock's IBIT, lost approximately $980 million during its worst week. The situation was further complicated by the U.S. Federal Reserve, which is in no hurry to cut rates.
Bitcoin is now trading at roughly half of its October high, when the price was around $126,000. The current decline calls into question the thesis of bitcoin as a safe-haven asset. During U.S. strikes on Iran this year, bitcoin fell along with stocks rather than rising in tandem with gold.
My analysis: As of today, the cryptocurrency's exchange rate depends much more on the level of global liquidity and interest rates than on geopolitical upheavals. Accordingly, a shift in the direction of investment flows in spot ETFs can influence quotes more than any decisions by the U.S. Congress. Ignoring this fundamental connection is one of the main mistakes of retail investors.