The US Senate restricted Trump on Iran: why markets ignored the historic vote
On Tuesday, the U.S. Senate passed a resolution aimed at limiting Donald Trump's military powers in the context of the conflict with Iran. However, neither traditional markets nor Bitcoin (BTC) reacted to this event. Why? The answer lies not in politics, but in the fact that markets have already "priced in" this scenario long ago.
This joint resolution of both chambers of Congress is an unprecedented case in modern U.S. history. Four Republicans supported the Democrats, and only one Democrat voted against it. Formally, this is a powerful signal of distrust in the executive branch. But investors perceived the event solely as a bureaucratic formality.
A Historical Precedent Without Legal Force
The fact is that this resolution is concurrent, meaning it does not go to the president for signature and has no binding legal force. The White House has already called it "meaningless." Markets fully understand this mechanism. Moreover, a de facto truce between Washington and Tehran was reached several weeks ago, when the Strait of Hormuz reopened and oil prices retreated from their peaks. Both stocks and oil had already priced in this easing of tensions long before the Senate vote.
The S&P 500 index remained virtually unchanged, despite a morning sell-off in the technology sector. Oil edged up slightly, but this is more of a technical correction rather than a reaction to politics. Congress had previously attempted to invoke the War Powers Act of 1973 in 2020 after the strike on Soleimani. At that time, Trump vetoed it. Now, a veto is not required since the resolution is non-binding.
Bitcoin Goes Its Own Way
At the time of writing this review, Bitcoin is trading around $62,667, losing approximately 2.5% over the past day. Its price dynamics recently reflect internal processes in the crypto market rather than political events in the U.S. The main driver now is macroeconomics and capital flows into spot ETFs.
The beginning of June was marked by a record-scale outflow of funds from U.S. spot Bitcoin funds: over 13 trading days, investors withdrew about $4.4 billion. This is the longest period of outflows since the launch of these instruments in January 2024. The largest fund, BlackRock's IBIT, lost approximately $980 million during its worst week. The situation was exacerbated by the U.S. Federal Reserve, which is in no hurry to cut rates.
The current downturn calls into question the thesis of Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset. During U.S. strikes on Iran this year, Bitcoin fell along with stocks, rather than rising in tandem with gold. Today, the cryptocurrency's exchange rate is much more dependent on the level of global liquidity and interest rates than on geopolitical upheavals.
My analysis: Markets clearly see the difference between a political gesture and a real shift in the balance of power. The Senate vote is a spectacle for a domestic audience. The real battle for Bitcoin is currently taking place not in the halls of Congress, but on the balance sheets of institutional investors who are reassessing their risk appetites amid the Fed's tight monetary policy. As long as ETFs show outflows, any positive geopolitical backdrop will be nothing but noise.