The U.S. Senate voted to limit Trump's military powers regarding Iran: market and Bitcoin reaction
On Tuesday, the U.S. Senate passed a resolution aimed at limiting President Donald Trump's military actions in the ongoing conflict with Iran. However, contrary to the expectations of "safe-haven" narrative supporters, Bitcoin (BTC) showed virtually no reaction to this event.
This joint resolution by both chambers of Congress set a historic precedent — it was the first time such a measure was adopted at this level. However, investors and traders perceived it as a mere formality. And this is quite understandable: the de facto ceasefire between Washington and Tehran was reached several weeks ago.
A historic decision already priced in by markets
Four Republicans — Bill Cassidy, Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski, and Rand Paul — supported the resolution alongside Democrats. Only Democrat John Fetterman voted against it. Congress had previously attempted to invoke the 1973 War Powers Act against a sitting president: in 2020, following the strike on Soleimani, the Senate approved a mandatory measure on Iran, but Trump vetoed it.
This time, it is a concurrent resolution, so it will not be sent to the president for signature. The White House called the decision meaningless, emphasizing that "concurrent resolutions do not go to the president and have no legal force."
The vote took place after the ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran was concluded at the beginning of the month. At that time, the Strait of Hormuz reopened, and oil prices fell from the peak levels caused by the conflict. Both stocks and oil had already priced in the relief from the ceasefire long before Tuesday's session.
The S&P 500 index remained nearly unchanged, as did oil prices, following a sell-off in the technology sector that affected markets in the first half of the day. Meanwhile, oil prices edged slightly higher.
Bitcoin goes its own way
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $62,667 — the coin has lost approximately 2.5% over the past day. Its price dynamics recently reflect internal crypto market processes rather than political events in the U.S.
The beginning of June was marked by a record-scale outflow of funds from U.S. spot Bitcoin funds. Over 13 trading days, investors withdrew about $4.4 billion. This capital outflow became the longest since the launch of these instruments in January 2024.
The largest fund, BlackRock's IBIT, lost approximately $980 million during its worst week. The situation was further complicated by the U.S. Federal Reserve, which is in no hurry to cut rates. Bitcoin is currently trading at roughly half its October high, when the price was around $126,000.
The current downturn calls into question the thesis of Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset, often promoted by cryptocurrency enthusiasts. During the U.S. strikes on Iran this year, Bitcoin fell along with stocks, rather than rising in tandem with gold.
My analysis: As of today, the cryptocurrency's exchange rate depends much more on the level of global liquidity and interest rates than on geopolitical upheavals. A change in the direction of investment flows in spot ETFs can affect quotes more than any decisions by the U.S. Congress. The market has long ceased to perceive political rhetoric as a trigger for movement — real money dictates the terms.