The U.S. Senate has limited Trump's military powers regarding Iran: Bitcoin ignored the news.
On Tuesday, the U.S. Senate passed a resolution aimed at limiting President Donald Trump's military powers in the context of the current conflict with Iran. However, contrary to the expectations of "digital gold" proponents, Bitcoin (BTC) showed no reaction to this event. Markets, including traditional assets and cryptocurrencies, had already priced in the outcome of this political maneuver.
This joint resolution by both chambers of Congress is historic: it is being passed for the first time. Four Republicans supported the resolution alongside Democrats, highlighting the bipartisan nature of the initiative. However, investors viewed the news as a mere formality. And for good reason: the de facto truce between Washington and Tehran was reached several weeks ago, after which the Strait of Hormuz reopened and oil prices retreated from their peaks.
A Historic Decision Already Priced In by Markets
Although unprecedented, the resolution is not legally binding on the president. The White House has already called it "meaningless," emphasizing that concurrent resolutions do not go to the president for signature and carry no legal force. This means the vote will have no real impact on the Trump administration's foreign policy.
The S&P 500 index remained virtually unchanged, although there was a sell-off in the technology sector during the first half of the day. Oil, on the other hand, rose slightly, driven more by technical factors than political news. Stocks and oil had already priced in the previous easing of tensions amid the truce, so the reaction to Tuesday's vote was minimal.
Bitcoin Goes Its Own Way
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $62,667, losing about 2.5% over the past 24 hours. Its price dynamics recently reflect internal processes in the crypto market rather than political events in the U.S. The current decline challenges the thesis of Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset. During the U.S. strikes on Iran earlier this year, Bitcoin fell along with stocks, rather than rising alongside gold.
The key driver for the leading cryptocurrency right now is capital outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs. Over 13 trading days, investors have withdrawn about $4.4 billion — the longest streak of outflows since these instruments launched in January 2024. BlackRock's largest fund, IBIT, lost approximately $980 million during its worst week. The situation was exacerbated by the U.S. Federal Reserve, which is in no hurry to cut rates.
My analysis shows: Bitcoin's current dynamics depend much more on the level of global liquidity and interest rates than on geopolitical shocks. Accordingly, a shift in investment flows into spot ETFs can affect prices more than any decisions by the U.S. Congress. Until investors see a reversal in the Fed's monetary policy or a resumption of capital inflows into ETFs, Bitcoin will likely continue to consolidate near current levels, ignoring the political noise.