The U.S. Senate restricted Trump on Iran: why markets and Bitcoin ignored the historic vote
On Tuesday, the U.S. Senate passed a joint resolution aimed at limiting President Donald Trump's military powers in the context of the current conflict with Iran. This decision, passed by both chambers of Congress for the first time in history, should have, in theory, sparked a strong reaction in financial markets. However, stock indices, oil, and especially Bitcoin showed no significant movements. Why? The answer lies in the nature of the vote itself and the fact that markets have already priced in all key geopolitical risks.
Four Republicans joined Democrats in supporting the resolution: Bill Cassidy, Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski, and Rand Paul. Only Democrat John Fetterman voted against it. It is important to understand that this is not a law, but a concurrent resolution, which is not sent to the president for signature and, as the White House explained, has no legal force. Essentially, it is a political statement, not a binding act. Markets, as expected, perceived this as a mere formality.
A historic decision that markets had already accounted for
The actual truce between Washington and Tehran was reached several weeks ago. At that time, the Strait of Hormuz reopened, and oil prices retreated from the peak levels caused by the conflict. Both stocks and oil had already priced in this relief long before Tuesday's Senate session. The S&P 500 remained nearly unchanged, while oil only slightly increased amid a sell-off in the technology sector in the first half of the day. The market had already "voted with its feet" when the real threat of escalation subsided.
Bitcoin goes its own way
At the time of writing this review, Bitcoin is trading at $62,667, losing about 2.5% over the past day. Its price dynamics recently reflect internal processes in the crypto market, rather than political events in the U.S. The current decline challenges the thesis of Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset. During the U.S. strikes on Iran this year, Bitcoin fell along with stocks, rather than rising in tandem with gold.
The key factor for the leading cryptocurrency now is the level of global liquidity and interest rates, not geopolitical shocks. The capital outflow from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, which has become the longest since their launch in January 2024, is a much more significant signal. Over 13 trading days, investors withdrew about $4.4 billion, and the largest fund, BlackRock's IBIT, lost approximately $980 million during its worst week. The U.S. Federal Reserve, which is in no hurry to cut rates, only exacerbates the situation.
My analysis: The Senate vote is more of a political spectacle than a real lever of influence. Markets have long learned to separate "noise" from real changes in the macroeconomic environment. For Bitcoin, the direction of the Fed's monetary policy and capital flows into ETFs are now far more important. As long as these factors remain bearish, any geopolitical news will only be temporary distractions on the path to a deeper correction.