The Senate has limited Trump's military powers regarding Iran: why markets and Bitcoin remained indifferent
On Tuesday, the U.S. Senate passed a joint resolution aimed at limiting President Donald Trump's military powers in the context of the conflict with Iran. This move, which for the first time in history united both chambers of Congress in such a decision, was supposed to send a signal to the markets. However, the reaction was more than subdued: Bitcoin (BTC), traditionally positioned as a safe-haven asset, barely responded to the news.
At first glance, the event is unique. Four Republicans—Bill Cassidy, Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski, and Rand Paul—supported the resolution alongside Democrats. Only Democrat John Fetterman voted against it. Yet investors perceived this as a mere formality. Why? Because the de facto truce between Washington and Tehran was reached several weeks ago, and markets had already priced it in.
A historic decision already accounted for
Congress had previously attempted to invoke the 1973 War Powers Act against a sitting president. In 2020, after the strike on Soleimani, the Senate approved a mandatory measure on Iran, but Trump vetoed it. This time, it involves a concurrent resolution that does not require the president's signature and carries no legal force. As the White House explained, such resolutions are nothing more than a political statement.
The vote took place after the ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran was concluded earlier this month. At that time, the Strait of Hormuz reopened, and oil prices fell from the peak levels triggered by the conflict. Both stocks and oil had already priced in the relief from the truce long before Tuesday's session. The S&P 500 index barely changed, despite a morning sell-off in the tech sector. Oil, on the other hand, edged slightly higher.
Bitcoin, however, went its own way. At the time of writing, the leading cryptocurrency is trading at $62,667, losing approximately 2.5% over the past day. Its price dynamics recently reflect internal processes in the crypto market rather than political events in the U.S. The beginning of June was marked by a record-scale outflow of funds from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs: over 13 trading days, investors withdrew about $4.4 billion. The largest fund, BlackRock's IBIT, lost roughly $980 million during its worst week. The situation was further complicated by the U.S. Federal Reserve, which is in no hurry to cut rates.
Currently, Bitcoin is trading at roughly half its October peak of $126,000. The current downturn calls into question the thesis of Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset, often promoted by cryptocurrency enthusiasts. During U.S. strikes on Iran this year, Bitcoin fell alongside stocks rather than rising with gold.
My analysis: Markets have made it clear that geopolitical risks related to Iran are already fully priced in. For Bitcoin, the key driver remains the macroeconomic environment—the level of global liquidity and interest rates. Until the Fed changes its policy, any political gestures from Congress will be nothing more than noise for the crypto market.