Arthur Hayes: Bitcoin could crash to $40,000, but I remain long.
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has made a bold prediction: Bitcoin could fall to $40,000 within the next six months. That's a correction of roughly 35% from current levels. But, as is often the case with major players, his long-term positions remain exceptionally bullish.
The Bitcoin market has been treading water for several weeks, and Hayes seems to see this lull as a precursor to a deep drawdown. In a recent interview, he confirmed that he is using put option spreads to hedge short-term risks, but his core assets are pure long positions. "I'm sticking with my guns," he said, commenting on his old forecast of $200,000–$250,000 by year-end. Even if he's wrong, he admitted, he'll be satisfied.
Strategy and the Macroeconomic Backdrop
This week, Bitcoin bounced back above $65,000, with Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) playing a key role. The company purchased an additional 520 BTC, boosting its reserves to $1.4 billion. According to QCP analysts, these purchases were executed through an at-the-market stock offering program, which had a positive impact on liquidity. However, the pace of accumulation is slowing: Wintermute notes that the rising cost of borrowed capital is curbing appetites, even for giants like Strategy and spot ETFs.
The main drag on the crypto market is the hawkish stance of the U.S. Federal Reserve. The regulator kept the rate at 3.50–3.75% and completely removed any hints of easing from its rhetoric. Moreover, the median rate forecast for 2026 rose from 3.4% to 3.8%. The probability of another rate hike in December jumped to 37%, up from 24% a month ago. 17 out of 18 Fed officials are confident that inflation risks remain persistently high.
Quarter-End Volatility and Capital Outflows
The end of the quarter could intensify the pressure. JPMorgan estimates that large investors could shift up to $165 billion from stocks to bonds — the largest volume in four years. Against this backdrop, Wintermute sees no signs of new demand: the market is stabilizing through position reduction and cleaner leverage, rather than an influx of fresh buyers.
My take: Hayes' forecast looks realistic under current macroeconomic conditions. A hawkish Fed and capital outflows from risky assets are a bearish cocktail. But his hedging strategy shows that even while expecting $40,000, one can stay long if risks are managed. The market right now is a game of patience, not a bet on instant growth.