The U.S. Senate passed a historic resolution on Iran: why Bitcoin was left out
On Tuesday, the U.S. Senate passed a joint resolution aimed at limiting President Donald Trump's military powers in the context of the conflict with Iran. However, neither bitcoin nor traditional markets showed any significant reaction to this event.
An unprecedented move that markets ignored
This is the first time in history that both chambers of Congress have passed such a joint resolution. Four Republicans — Bill Cassidy, Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski, and Rand Paul — supported the resolution alongside Democrats. The only dissenting vote came from Democrat John Fetterman. The White House has already called the decision meaningless, emphasizing that agreed-upon resolutions have no legal force and are not sent to the president for signature.
Markets, in turn, perceived this as a mere formality. The S&P 500 index remained virtually unchanged. Oil prices only slightly increased after a morning sell-off in the technology sector. The reason is simple: a de facto truce between Washington and Tehran was reached several weeks ago when the Strait of Hormuz reopened and oil prices retreated from conflict-driven peaks. Stocks and commodities had already priced in this relief long before the Senate vote.
Bitcoin: its own path and its own triggers
At the time of writing this review, bitcoin is trading around $62,667, losing approximately 2.5% over the past day. Its price dynamics recently reflect internal processes in the crypto market rather than political events in the U.S.
The beginning of June was marked by a record-scale outflow of funds from U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs. Over 13 trading days, investors withdrew about $4.4 billion — the longest period of outflows since these instruments were launched in January 2024. The largest fund, BlackRock's IBIT, lost approximately $980 million during its worst week. The situation was exacerbated by the Federal Reserve, which is in no hurry to cut rates.
The current downturn seriously calls into question the thesis of bitcoin as a safe-haven asset. During U.S. strikes on Iran this year, bitcoin fell in sync with stocks rather than rising alongside gold.
My analysis: As of today, bitcoin's exchange rate is much more dependent on the level of global liquidity and interest rates than on geopolitical shocks. Changes in the direction of investment flows in spot ETFs can affect quotes much more than any decisions by the U.S. Congress. And as long as the Fed maintains a hawkish stance, bitcoin will remain a hostage to macroeconomic conditions rather than geopolitical headlines.