Arthur Hayes allows for a bitcoin correction to $40,000: hedging amid bullish sentiment
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes warns of a potential drop in Bitcoin (BTC) to the $40,000 mark within the next six months. This forecast comes amid his own large long positions, highlighting the complex market conditions. A 35% decline from current levels is a serious scenario that, at first glance, contradicts Hayes' long-term optimism.
Hedging Strategy and Long-Term View
In an interview with EllioTrades, Hayes explained that he uses put option spreads for short-term protection, but his fundamental positions remain exclusively long. The $40,000 level is seen by him as a critical support level. Notably, when asked about a forecast of $200,000–$250,000 by year-end, he replied: "I stick to my view. Even if I'm wrong, it's not that important... I'm long and will be happy either way." This indicates that the current correction is perceived as a temporary phenomenon within a larger bullish cycle.
Impact of Macroeconomics and Institutional Purchases
A key factor pressuring Bitcoin remains the hawkish stance of the U.S. Federal Reserve. The regulator kept the rate at 3.50–3.75%, completely removing any hints of easing from its rhetoric. Moreover, the median rate forecast for 2026 rose from 3.4% to 3.8%. According to Wintermute, the probability of another rate hike in December increased from 24% to 37%. Meanwhile, JPMorgan analysts expect a flow of up to $165 billion from stocks into bonds by the end of the quarter, creating additional pressure on risk assets.
Against this backdrop, purchases by Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy)—520 BTC for $300 million—helped Bitcoin hold above $65,000. However, according to Wintermute analysts, the pace of accumulation is slowing due to the rising cost of borrowed capital. Spot ETFs and Strategy are currently generating significantly less additional demand than in previous periods, indicating momentum exhaustion.
My Professional Opinion
Arthur Hayes' forecast is not panic, but a rational assessment of the current macroeconomic uncertainty. The combination of the Fed's hawkish policy, seasonal capital flows, and slowing institutional purchases creates ideal conditions for a deep correction. Nevertheless, his hedging strategy and retention of long positions indicate faith in the long-term bullish trend. Investors should prepare for increased volatility in the coming weeks, especially amid the release of PCE index data.