The U.S. Senate has limited Trump's military authority over Iran: zero reaction from Bitcoin and stock markets.
On Tuesday, the U.S. Senate passed a historic resolution limiting President Donald Trump's military actions in the context of the Iranian conflict. This joint resolution by both chambers of Congress set a unique precedent — for the first time in history, such a measure was agreed upon at such a high level. However, markets, including Bitcoin, which is traditionally positioned as a safe-haven asset against geopolitical risks, effectively ignored this event.
A Formality Already Priced In by Markets
Four Republicans — Bill Cassidy, Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski, and Rand Paul — supported the resolution alongside Democrats. Only Democrat John Fetterman voted against it. It is important to note that Congress had previously attempted to apply the 1973 War Powers Resolution against a sitting president: in 2020, after the strike on Soleimani, the Senate approved a mandatory measure on Iran, but Trump vetoed it.
This time, it is a concurrent resolution, which does not go to the president for signature and therefore has no legal force. The White House called the decision "meaningless." Investors perceived it as a pure formality, given that a de facto truce between Washington and Tehran was reached several weeks ago — the Strait of Hormuz reopened, and oil prices fell from the peak levels triggered by the conflict.
The S&P 500 index remained nearly unchanged, as did oil prices after a sell-off in the technology sector during the first half of the day. Oil, however, rose slightly.
Bitcoin Goes Its Own Way
At the time of writing this review, Bitcoin is trading at $62,667, losing approximately 2.5% over the past day. Its price dynamics recently reflect internal processes in the crypto market rather than political events in the U.S. The beginning of June was marked by a record-scale outflow of funds from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs: over 13 trading days, investors withdrew about $4.4 billion. This capital outflow became the longest since the launch of these instruments in January 2024.
The largest fund, BlackRock IBIT, lost approximately $980 million during its worst week. The situation was further complicated by the U.S. Federal Reserve, which is in no hurry to cut rates. Bitcoin is now trading roughly half below its October high of around $126,000.
The current downturn calls into question the thesis of Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset. During U.S. strikes on Iran this year, Bitcoin fell along with stocks, rather than rising in tandem with gold. As of today, the cryptocurrency's exchange rate is much more dependent on the level of global liquidity and interest rates than on geopolitical shocks. Accordingly, a change in the direction of investment flows in spot ETFs can affect quotes more strongly than any decisions by the U.S. Congress.
Expert opinion: Markets are clearly signaling that geopolitical "paper" restrictions are nothing more than informational noise. For Bitcoin, the key driver now is the macroeconomic environment and the dynamics of institutional capital inflows/outflows. Until the Fed changes its course, any political rhetoric will remain merely background noise.