Arthur Hayes predicts Bitcoin correction to $40,000: bearish scenario amid tight Fed policy
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has suggested Bitcoin could fall to $40,000 within the next six months. This statement comes amid his own long-term bullish positions, indicating a complex market environment and the need for risk hedging.
BTC's current momentum has remained sluggish for several weeks. If Hayes' forecast materializes, the decline from current levels would be approximately 35%. It is important to emphasize: Hayes himself uses put option spreads for hedging, but his core portfolios remain exclusively long and substantial. This suggests he expects a temporary drawdown rather than a reversal of the long-term trend.
Strategy's purchases are not saving the market
At the start of the week, Bitcoin bounced above $65,000 thanks to purchases by Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy). The company added 520 BTC to its balance sheet, increasing reserves to $1.4 billion. However, as Wintermute analysts note, the pace of asset accumulation is slowing due to the rising cost of borrowed capital. The two main buyers — spot ETFs and Strategy — are generating much less additional demand than in previous periods.
The Fed is pressuring the market
The main constraining factor for digital assets remains the policy of the U.S. Federal Reserve System. The American regulator kept the base interest rate at 3.50–3.75%, completely removing any hints of possible easing from its rhetoric. The median forecast for the rate in 2026 has been raised from 3.4% to 3.8%.
Kevin Warsh's hawkish stance confirmed the commitment to fighting inflation. The probability of another rate hike in December has risen to 37% (compared to 24% a month ago). 17 out of 18 Fed officials believe inflation risks remain consistently high.
Quarterly rebalancing will increase volatility
The end of the quarter could amplify volatility. According to JPMorgan estimates, large investors may shift up to $165 billion from stocks to bonds by the end of June — the largest volume in four years. Wintermute has not yet detected signs of new demand: "The market is stabilizing through position reduction and cleaner leverage, with no influx of new buyers visible."
My opinion: Hayes' forecast is not panic, but a pragmatic view of macroeconomic reality. The Fed's hawkish policy and declining institutional buying activity create conditions for a deep correction. However, the long-term bullish trend, supported by limited supply and growing adoption, remains intact. A correction to $40,000 is not a crash, but an opportunity to enter.