The U.S. Senate has limited Trump's military powers regarding Iran: reaction of Bitcoin and markets
On Tuesday, the U.S. Senate made a historic decision — passing a resolution aimed at limiting President Donald Trump's military powers in the context of the conflict with Iran. This is the first time in history that both chambers of Congress have jointly adopted such an act. However, as expected, markets, including Bitcoin, reacted to this news with complete indifference.
Political Theater Without Market Consequences
Four Republicans — Bill Cassidy, Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski, and Rand Paul — joined Democrats in supporting the resolution. Only Democrat John Fetterman voted against it. Interestingly, in 2020, the Senate had already attempted to invoke the 1973 War Powers Act against Trump following the strike on Soleimani, but the president vetoed it at the time. This time, the resolution is a concurrent one and does not require the president's signature, which the White House called a "meaningless" gesture with no legal force.
From a market perspective, this event is a pure formality. The de facto truce between Washington and Tehran was reached several weeks ago when the Strait of Hormuz reopened and oil prices retreated from the peak levels caused by the conflict. The S&P 500 index remained virtually unchanged, while oil prices rose slightly after a morning sell-off in the technology sector.
Bitcoin: Its Own Path, Independent of Geopolitics
At the time of writing this analysis, Bitcoin is trading around $62,667, losing approximately 2.5% over the past day. Its price dynamics recently have reflected exclusively internal processes in the crypto market, rather than political battles in Congress. The beginning of June was marked by a record outflow of funds from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs — over 13 trading days, investors withdrew about $4.4 billion. The largest fund, BlackRock's IBIT, lost roughly $980 million during its worst week.
The situation was further exacerbated by the Federal Reserve, which is in no hurry to cut rates. Bitcoin is currently trading at about half of its October high of around $126,000. The current downturn calls into question the thesis of Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset. During U.S. strikes on Iran this year, Bitcoin fell along with stocks, rather than rising in tandem with gold.
My expert view: The cryptocurrency market today is much more dependent on global liquidity and interest rates than on geopolitical shocks. Changes in the direction of investment flows into spot ETFs can affect quotes more than any decisions by the U.S. Congress. Investors should focus on macroeconomic data, not political resolutions.