Arthur Hayes allows for a Bitcoin correction to $40,000: hedging strategy and macroeconomic pressure
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has outlined a scenario in which Bitcoin (BTC) could test the $40,000 level within the next six months. This statement comes against the backdrop of his own long-term bullish positions, indicating a complex risk-hedging strategy.
Hayes' Strategy: Long at the Core, Put Options for Protection
In a recent interview, Hayes explained that he uses put option spreads to hedge short-term risks. Meanwhile, his fundamental portfolios remain exclusively long and large. A drop to $40,000 would represent a decline of approximately 35% from current levels, fully aligning with his strategy of capital protection during a correction.
"I stand by my position," Hayes stated when asked about his $200,000–$250,000 year-end forecast, despite only weeks remaining until that deadline. "Even if I'm wrong, it's not that important... I'm long and will be happy either way." This underscores his confidence in the long-term upward trend, despite expected short-term volatility.
Pressure Factors: Fed, Liquidity, and Institutional Purchases
A key restraining factor for Bitcoin remains the hawkish stance of the U.S. Federal Reserve. The regulator kept the base rate at 3.50–3.75%, completely removing any hints of potential easing from its rhetoric. Moreover, the median rate forecast for 2026 was raised from 3.4% to 3.8%. This instantly shifted sentiment among major players: according to Wintermute, the probability of another rate hike in December rose to 37%, compared to just 24% a month ago.
Purchases by Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) continue to support the market, but less actively. The company added 520 BTC to its balance sheet, increasing reserves to $1.4 billion. However, as Wintermute analysts note, the pace of accumulation is slowing due to the rising cost of borrowed capital. Spot ETFs and MicroStrategy are generating much less additional demand than in previous periods.
Macroeconomic Background and Quarterly Volatility
Additional pressure comes from capital reallocation: according to JPMorgan estimates, large investors could shift up to $165 billion from stocks to bonds by the end of June. This would be the largest outflow in four years. In the cryptocurrency market, according to Wintermute, stabilization is underway through position reduction and cleaner leverage, but no influx of new buyers is yet visible.
Cryptalist Expert Opinion: Hayes' scenario is not panic, but prudent risk management. The $40,000 level looks like a realistic support zone, especially amid macroeconomic uncertainty and the Fed's tightening of monetary policy. However, the long-term bullish trend remains intact, and the current correction could become an excellent entry point for those ready for volatility.