The Senate's historic resolution on Iran: why Bitcoin and markets did not notice this event
On Tuesday, the U.S. Senate passed a joint resolution on war powers aimed at limiting President Donald Trump's actions in the conflict with Iran. However, contrary to the expectations of some market participants, bitcoin (BTC)—an asset often positioned in financial circles as a hedge against geopolitical risks—did not react to this news at all.
A unique political precedent that markets ignored
This decision by both chambers of Congress marked the first such joint step in history. Four Republicans supported the resolution alongside Democrats, underscoring its political weight. Yet investors and traders perceived the event as a mere formality. And this is unsurprising: the de facto truce between Washington and Tehran was reached several weeks ago, when after mutual strikes, the parties sat down at the negotiating table. At that time, the Strait of Hormuz reopened, and oil prices retreated from the peak values triggered by the escalation.
The White House, in turn, called the resolution meaningless, noting that such coordinated documents have no legal force and do not go to the president for signature. Markets appear to have fully agreed with this assessment.
Stocks, oil, and bitcoin: no reaction
The S&P 500 index remained virtually unchanged, despite sell-offs in the technology sector in the first half of the day. Oil, after a short-term decline, rose slightly, but the overall dynamics stayed within factors already priced in by the market. Both stocks and oil had already priced in the easing of tensions long before Tuesday's vote.
Bitcoin, which this year fell alongside stocks during U.S. strikes on Iran rather than rising with gold, continues to follow its own logic. At the time of writing this review, BTC is trading around $62,667, losing approximately 2.5% over the past day. The current decline calls into question the thesis of bitcoin as "digital gold" and a safe-haven asset.
Internal factors weigh more heavily than geopolitics
The cryptocurrency's price dynamics recently reflect internal market processes rather than political events in the U.S. A record-scale outflow of funds from U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs—about $4.4 billion over 13 trading days—has become the longest since the launch of these instruments in January 2024. The largest fund, BlackRock IBIT, lost nearly $980 million during its worst week. The situation was exacerbated by the Federal Reserve, which is in no hurry to cut rates.
Currently, bitcoin is trading roughly half below its October high of around $126,000. This clearly demonstrates that the cryptocurrency's exchange rate depends much more on the level of global liquidity and interest rates than on geopolitical shocks. Changes in the direction of investment flows in spot ETFs can influence quotes more than any decisions by the U.S. Congress.
Expert opinion: The market has long discounted the de-escalation of the Iran-U.S. conflict. For bitcoin, the current priority is the macroeconomic environment. As long as the Fed keeps rates high and investors withdraw capital from ETFs, any political resolutions remain mere noise, unable to change the trend.