Arthur Hayes predicts Bitcoin correction to $40,000: what lies behind the bearish scenario
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes admits the possibility of bitcoin (BTC) dropping to the $40,000 mark in the next six months. This pessimistic forecast comes against the backdrop of his core portfolio positions remaining oriented toward long-term market growth. This divergence between short-term expectations and strategic positioning is a characteristic sign of a mature approach to risk management.
BTC's overall dynamics have shown consolidation for several weeks. A drop to $40,000 would mean a correction of approximately 35% from current levels. Interestingly, Hayes uses put option spreads for hedging, but his long-term positions remain exclusively long and large. This indicates that he expects temporary pressure but maintains faith in the structural bullish trend.
In a recent interview, Hayes confirmed that his target of $200,000–$250,000 by the end of the year remains in effect, despite only a few weeks remaining until that deadline. "Even if I'm wrong, it's not that important... I'm long and will be happy either way," he stated. However, his hedging strategy points to caution in the coming months.
Pressure factors: The Fed and the macroeconomic backdrop
The main restraining factor for digital assets remains the policy of the U.S. Federal Reserve System. The regulator kept the base rate at 3.50–3.75%, completely removing any hints of possible easing from its rhetoric. Moreover, the median rate forecast for 2026 rose from 3.4% to 3.8%. This hawkish stance instantly changed the sentiment of major players. According to Wintermute, the probability of another rate hike in December rose to 37% versus 24% a month ago. 17 out of 18 agency representatives are confident that inflation risks remain consistently high.
Additionally, increased volatility is expected at the end of the quarter. According to JPMorgan estimates, large investors could shift up to $165 billion from stocks to bonds by the end of June — the largest volume in four years. Wintermute is not currently recording signs of new demand, and the market is stabilizing through position reduction and net deleveraging.
My expert opinion: Hayes' forecast reflects a rational assessment of current macroeconomic realities but does not negate the long-term bullish scenario. The market is in a phase of reassessment, and $40,000 is not a catastrophe but rather an accumulation zone for those willing to wait. The key trigger for exiting the range will be a softening of Fed rhetoric, but until then, BTC will likely continue to test support levels.