Is Michael Saylor's strategy under threat? CryptoQuant CEO calls for a pause and offers three tough pieces of advice
Strategy's aggressive bitcoin accumulation strategy appears to have reached a critical point. Leading analyst and founder of CryptoQuant, Ki Young Ju, made a surprising statement: Strategy's current purchases resemble more of a "liquidity sink" than a price driver. Instead of pushing the market upward, these acquisitions are merely keeping it in a sideways trend, preventing natural corrections and a cycle reset.
Why aren't Strategy's purchases working?
The analyst's key argument is an imbalance in the company's own financial metrics. Strategy's annual dividend obligations have nearly quadrupled, reaching $1.2 billion. Meanwhile, the company's cash reserves are projected to decline by 38% in 2026, and dividend coverage has collapsed from seven years to just 14 months. This is a classic sign of overheating.
Moreover, according to CryptoQuant, over the past two years, bitcoin's realized capitalization has grown by $467 billion, yet the asset's price has declined by 1%. This clearly demonstrates that massive capital inflows are not creating upward momentum but merely leading to a change in coin holders. The market is essentially digesting supply without generating demand.
Ki Young Ju also notes that the current bitcoin cycle is anomalous. Instead of the typical deep drawdowns, capitulation, and subsequent accumulation by whales, we are witnessing a prolonged sideways trend that has lasted nearly two years. In his view, Strategy's continuous purchases only "prolong the sluggish sideways movement," preventing the market from cleansing itself and creating conditions for a new bull rally.
Three tips for Michael Saylor
Ki Young Ju directly addressed the founder of Strategy with three specific proposals:
First: Immediately suspend bitcoin purchases until cash reserves and dividend coverage are restored. This is a matter of the company's financial stability.
Second: Develop a systematic, model-based purchasing scheme. The phrase "Strategy always buys at the local top" has already become a market meme. Buying "whenever there is free capital" is not a strategy but an impulsive action.
Third: Implement a disciplined partial sale scheme for the next bull market. This is not a rejection of bitcoin but prudent risk management. Partially taking profits near cycle peaks would reduce debt burden, lock in value for shareholders, and create a liquidity reserve for re-accumulation at lower prices.
My professional opinion: Ki Young Ju's call is not a critique of bitcoin as an asset but a warning about systemic risks within Strategy itself. The company has turned into a "black hole" for liquidity, but this process cannot last forever. If Saylor does not revise his tactics, the market may do it for him, and the correction will be much more painful. Risk management is not trading; it is long-term survival.