BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes: Bitcoin could crash to $40,000
The digital asset market is once again on the verge of a serious correction. The co-founder of the BitMEX exchange, renowned crypto entrepreneur Arthur Hayes, has outlined an extremely bearish scenario for the first cryptocurrency. In a recent interview, he predicted Bitcoin could fall to the $40,000 mark within the next six months. This statement rings particularly loud given that his long-term portfolios remain oriented toward growth.
It is worth noting that BTC's current price dynamics have been in a sideways trend for several weeks. If Hayes' forecast comes true, the decline would be approximately 35% from current levels. This is not just a technical correction but a full-blown crash capable of reshaping market sentiment.
Hedging Strategy and Long-Term Forecast
Hayes explained that he uses put option spreads to hedge short-term risks, yet his fundamental position remains exclusively long. The $40,000 level is seen by him as a key support level that could be tested amid tightening monetary policy. Notably, Hayes had previously set much more optimistic targets — $200,000 to $250,000 by the end of the year. However, he now acknowledges that these forecasts may not materialize within such a tight timeframe, though he is not changing his strategy.
"I stick to my guns. Even if I'm wrong, it doesn't matter that much... I'm long and will be happy either way," Hayes stated, commenting on the relevance of his ambitious goals.
Macroeconomic Headwinds Weigh on BTC
The main restraining factor for the crypto market remains the hawkish stance of the U.S. Federal Reserve. The regulator kept the base rate at 3.50–3.75%, completely removing any hints of potential easing from its rhetoric. Moreover, the median rate forecast for 2026 was raised from 3.4% to 3.8%. This immediately impacted the sentiment of major players: the probability of another rate hike in December rose from 24% to 37% in just one month.
Analysts at Wintermute note that the pace of asset accumulation by large institutional players, such as MicroStrategy (now Strategy), has noticeably slowed due to the rising cost of borrowed capital. Although the company's purchases continue, they no longer generate the additional demand seen previously. Spot ETFs and Strategy remain the primary buyers, but their combined influence on the market is declining.
Quarterly Rebalancing and Liquidity Risks
Additionally, the end of the quarter brings further risks. According to JPMorgan estimates, large investors could shift up to $165 billion from stocks to bonds — the largest volume of reallocation in the last four years. Such a capital outflow from risky assets, including cryptocurrencies, could amplify volatility and trigger further declines.
Commentary from Cryptalist analyst: Hayes' forecast is not panic but a pragmatic view of the current macroeconomic reality. The market is overheated with expectations of a rapid Fed policy easing, and now we are seeing a reality check. The $40,000 level is not just a number but a zone where strong demand will form. For long-term investors, this could be an excellent entry point, but in the coming months, we face a serious test of resilience.