Arthur Hayes admits the possibility of Bitcoin collapsing to $40,000: a bearish scenario amid a bullish strategy
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has issued a surprisingly pessimistic forecast for bitcoin, suggesting the leading cryptocurrency could fall to $40,000 within the next six months. The statement came during an interview where Hayes, known for his bullish stance, acknowledged the possibility of a deep correction — around 35% from current levels.
Notably, Hayes himself continues to hold large long positions, emphasizing that his long-term strategy remains unchanged. However, he is using put option spreads to hedge short-term risks. This indicates that, despite his belief in growth by year-end (he previously set targets of $200,000–$250,000), he views the coming months as extremely volatile.
Macroeconomic pressure and institutional support
The main catalyst for this scenario is the hawkish stance of the U.S. Federal Reserve. The regulator kept the rate at 3.50–3.75% and removed hints of easing from its rhetoric. The median rate forecast for 2026 was raised from 3.4% to 3.8%, and the probability of another rate hike in December increased from 24% to 37%. Such hawkish policy puts strong pressure on risky assets, including cryptocurrencies.
For now, the market is being supported by purchases from Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), which recently added 520 BTC to its balance sheet, increasing reserves to $1.4 billion. However, according to Wintermute analysts, the pace of asset accumulation by both ETFs and corporations has noticeably slowed. Institutional demand no longer creates the same momentum, and the cost of borrowed capital for major players is rising.
Liquidity and volatility risks
Additional pressure comes from capital shifting from stocks to bonds. According to JPMorgan estimates, large investors could move up to $165 billion by the end of the quarter — the largest volume in four years. This could increase volatility and trigger further declines in bitcoin, especially amid a lack of new buyers.
As Wintermute notes, the market is going through a stabilization phase driven by position reduction and deleveraging. There is no influx of fresh funds, and macroeconomic uncertainty remains high. Under these conditions, the $40,000 level looks not like a fantasy but a realistic scenario if the Fed continues tightening.
My opinion: Hayes' forecast is not panic but a pragmatic acknowledgment that the market is overheated amid tight monetary policy. The scenario of a drop to $40,000 is realistic, but such corrections often become the best entry points for long-term investors. The key question is how quickly the Fed will change course, and for now, BTC holders should prepare for turbulence.