Analysts recommend Strategy take a pause in bitcoin purchases: reserves are melting, while liabilities are growing
Recently, the market situation surrounding Strategy has raised serious questions. Analysts have concluded that the company should immediately suspend Bitcoin purchases and focus on restoring its dollar reserve. The reason is a sharp deterioration in fundamental indicators, primarily the dividend coverage on STRC preferred shares.
The head of the research department noted that the STRC decline below $100 is not just a result of leveraged liquidations, but a consequence of a systemic deterioration in the company's financial health.
Reserves Shrinking, Debts Growing
Since the beginning of 2026, Strategy's dollar cash reserve has decreased by 38%. Over the same period, annual dividend obligations have nearly quadrupled — from $300 million to $1.2 billion. With STRC's current yield at 11.5%, dividend coverage has fallen from over seven years to approximately 14 months. That is, if the company stops generating cash, its current reserves will last just over a year.
May 2026 was particularly painful, when Strategy spent $1.5 billion on redeeming convertible bonds. This move, while logical from a debt management perspective, further narrowed the liquidity that could be directed toward servicing STRC. Last week, STRC dropped to $82.50 — 17.5% below par value.
Selling Bitcoin Is Not an Option
Rapidly restoring the reserve by selling Bitcoin would be fatal for shareholder value. Strategy has $10.6 billion in unrealized losses. All coins purchased since 2024 are in the red. The company holds 847,363 BTC. A forced sell-off is unlikely, as the company is not obligated to liquidate crypto assets to support STRC and can use other instruments. However, the very fact of such losses weighs on market sentiment.
What Needs to Be Done?
According to calculations, to restore STRC to a comfortable level, Strategy's cash reserve needs to grow to approximately $2.8 billion — equivalent to 24 months of dividend coverage. In mid-June, the company reported a cash reserve of $1.1 billion. Thus, the required increase is $1.7 billion.
The priority is a pause in Bitcoin purchases and restoring the dollar reserve. After that, according to analysts, the company should adopt a more systematic approach to new purchases, rather than increasing its position every time capital is raised. It is important to remember that STRC dividends are cumulative: missed payments do not disappear and must be compensated later. Therefore, a "just wait" strategy will not work here.
My comment: The situation is becoming a classic example of a conflict between a long-term Bitcoin accumulation strategy and short-term obligations to preferred shareholders. If Strategy cannot find a balance, the market may begin to price a default risk premium into STRC, further exacerbating the situation. A pause in purchases is not a sign of weakness, but a necessary tactical maneuver.