Bitcoin purchases by Strategy: why it no longer works and what the head of CryptoQuant advises
The market is changing, and strategies that yielded results yesterday may work against you today. This is the conclusion drawn after analyzing the current situation with Bitcoin purchases by Strategy. CryptoQuant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju made an unexpected statement: Strategy's current Bitcoin acquisitions are more reminiscent of a "liquidity sink" than a price growth driver. In his opinion, the company should immediately suspend purchases, restore cash reserves, and reconsider its approach to timing transactions.
The trigger for this analysis was Strategy's latest financial data. Over the past year, the company's dividend obligations have nearly quadrupled, reaching $1.2 billion. Meanwhile, cash reserves are projected to decline by 38% by 2026. The dividend coverage ratio, which previously exceeded seven years, has plummeted to 14 months. This is an alarming signal that cannot be ignored.
Why aren't purchases driving the price?
Ki Young Ju notes a paradoxical situation: in conditions of low selling pressure, demand from Strategy can indeed significantly influence the price. But today, when seller pressure is clearly elevated, these purchases only keep the price within a range without pushing it higher. Moreover, they prevent the market from undergoing a deeper "cleansing drawdown" that would give more holders liquidity and confidence to lock in profits. Instead, we are only seeing a "prolonged sideways drift."
To support his words, the CryptoQuant head cited data on Bitcoin's realized capitalization. Over the past two years, it has grown by $467 billion, yet the price has even declined by 1%. This clearly demonstrates that hundreds of billions of dollars flowing into the market only lead to a change in coin ownership, not to price appreciation. Typically, Bitcoin cycles reset through crashes, capitulation, the exit of weak holders, and accumulation by whales. But the current cycle is different: Bitcoin has been moving in a broad sideways range for nearly two years, lacking the strength to confirm a new bull market and not weakening enough for a true capitulation.
Three tips for Michael Saylor
Ki Young Ju directly addressed Strategy founder Michael Saylor with three specific proposals. First, he called for suspending Bitcoin purchases until cash reserves and dividend coverage are restored. Second, the company needs a systematic, model-based purchasing scheme. The phrase "Strategy always buys at the local top" has become a real market meme, and this is not a strategy but a lack of one. Third, the CryptoQuant head proposed developing a disciplined selling scheme for the next bull market.
Partial sales near cycle peaks would not mean abandoning Bitcoin—they would reduce the company's debt burden, lock in value for shareholders, and create a reserve of free liquidity for re-accumulation at lower prices. As Ki Young Ju emphasized, this is not trading, but risk management.
Expert opinion: The CryptoQuant head's call is not just criticism, but a timely warning. The "buy and hold" strategy worked in a rising market, but when capital is no longer infinite and obligations grow, a lack of flexibility can become fatal. Saylor should listen—risk management is now more important than faith in an endless bullish trend.