Strategy on the Edge: CryptoQuant Recommends Strategy Pause Bitcoin Purchases
Against the backdrop of a rapid deterioration in fundamental indicators, CryptoQuant analysts have concluded that Strategy must immediately suspend Bitcoin purchases and focus on rebuilding its dollar reserve. The key trigger is a sharp decline in dividend coverage for STRC preferred shares, which has reached critically low levels.
Cash Reserve Melts While Liabilities Grow
Since the beginning of 2026, Strategy's dollar cash reserve has shrunk by 38%. At the same time, annual dividend obligations have nearly quadrupled — from $300 million to $1.2 billion. The yield on STRC stands at 11.5%. Against this backdrop, dividend coverage — the period for which the current reserve is sufficient for payments — has fallen from more than seven years to approximately 14 months.
A particular blow came in May 2026, when Strategy spent $1.5 billion on redeeming convertible bonds. This move further narrowed the liquidity buffer that the company could use to service STRC. Last week, STRC dropped to $82.50 — 17.5% below its par value of $100.
Selling Bitcoin — Too Costly a Scenario
Rapidly restoring the reserve by selling Bitcoin, according to analysts, would "kill" shareholder value. Strategy has $10.6 billion in unrealized losses. All coins purchased since 2024 are in the red. The company holds 847,363 BTC. However, a forced sale is unlikely, as Strategy is not obligated to liquidate crypto assets to support STRC and can use other instruments.
What CryptoQuant Proposes
To bring STRC back to a more comfortable level, Strategy's cash reserve would need to grow to approximately $2.8 billion — equivalent to 24 months of dividend coverage. In mid-June, the company reported a cash reserve of $1.1 billion.
The priority is a pause in Bitcoin purchases and rebuilding the dollar reserve. Only after that should the company move to a more systematic approach to new purchases, rather than increasing its position every time capital is raised. STRC dividends are cumulative, so missed payments do not disappear and must be compensated later. For this reason, Strategy is unlikely to decide to suspend them.
My expert conclusion: The situation with Strategy is a classic example of how an aggressive asset accumulation strategy can lead to a critical liquidity imbalance. The market has already priced in the risks: STRC falling below par is a signal that investors demand a risk premium. A pause in purchases is a reasonable step, but the main question is whether the company can find sources to replenish the reserve without selling Bitcoin. If not, pressure on STRC will persist.