Michael Saylor's strategy has cracked: CryptoQuant demands a halt to Bitcoin purchases
The aggressive bitcoin accumulation strategy pursued by Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) has reached a critical threshold. Analysts at CryptoQuant have come to a clear conclusion: the company needs to immediately pause its purchases of the first cryptocurrency and focus on rebuilding its dollar reserve. The reason is a sharp deterioration in the fundamental indicators of its STRC preferred stock.
Head of Research Julio Moreno directly linked the drop of STRC below the $100 mark not to market speculation or leveraged position liquidations, but to systemic problems within Strategy itself. The company's cash reserve in US dollars has shrunk by 38% since the beginning of 2026. Meanwhile, annual dividend obligations have nearly quadrupled — from $300 million to $1.2 billion. STRC's yield currently stands at 11.5%, which is an extremely high figure for an instrument of this kind.
The most alarming signal is dividend coverage. Not long ago, the current cash reserve would have been sufficient for payments over seven years. Now this metric has collapsed to approximately 14 months. A separate blow to liquidity came in May 2026, when Strategy spent $1.5 billion on buying back its own convertible bonds, further narrowing an already shrinking safety buffer.
Selling Bitcoin Would Be Suicide for Shareholders
Moreno warns: an attempt to quickly replenish the reserve by selling part of the bitcoin holdings would be a disaster for shareholder value. The company holds 847,363 BTC on its balance sheet, but an unrealized loss of $10.6 billion has been recorded on them. All coins purchased starting from 2024 are in the red. According to CryptoQuant's estimates, a forced sale is unlikely — the company is not obligated to realize crypto assets to support STRC and can use other instruments.
Recipe for Survival: A Pause and $2.8 Billion in Cash
According to analysts' calculations, to bring STRC back to a comfortable level, Strategy's cash reserve needs to grow to approximately $2.8 billion. This would provide 24 months of dividend coverage. As of mid-June, the company reported a reserve of $1.1 billion. Thus, the required amount is nearly 2.5 times the current one.
The top priority is a complete halt to bitcoin purchases and an increase in the dollar reserve. Only after that, according to experts, can Strategy return to a more systematic approach to acquiring BTC, rather than buying coins with every capital raise. It is separately emphasized that STRC dividends are cumulative — missed payments are not canceled but accrue. This makes suspending payments an extremely unlikely scenario.
My comment: The situation with Strategy is a classic example of how aggressive financial engineering can lead to a dead end. The company has fallen into the trap of its own strategy: to maintain high STRC yields and stock prices, it needs to constantly raise capital and buy bitcoin. But now the market has turned, and each new purchase only increases the unrealized loss. A pause is inevitable, and the question is not whether Strategy will stop, but how much damage to its reputation and shareholder value will be done before that happens.