Gold broke through the psychological level: falling below $4,000 for the first time since the beginning of 2026
The precious metals market is experiencing a landmark event: the price of gold has fallen below the $4,000 per ounce mark for the first time since January 2026. This decline is the result of a combination of factors that I have been closely monitoring in recent weeks.
The main driver of the decline was the strengthening of the US dollar and rising yields on Treasury bonds. Investors are reorienting toward fiat assets, anticipating a tightening of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve. Additionally, easing geopolitical tensions has reduced demand for safe-haven assets, which traditionally puts pressure on gold prices.
The technical picture also confirms the bearish trend. The $4,000 level had acted as a strong psychological support since the start of the year, and its breach opens the way to the next significant range—$3,800 to $3,850. Sales volumes over the past 48 hours have increased significantly, indicating panic among retail holders.
Institutional investors, on the other hand, are showing restraint. Major hedge funds have reduced their long positions in gold by 12% over the past week, but have not shifted to aggressive short positions. This suggests that the current decline may be a temporary correction rather than the start of a long-term downtrend.
My expert assessment: A scenario of further decline to $3,700 remains likely in the next 2–3 weeks, especially if US inflation data comes in above forecasts. However, for long-term investors, current levels may represent an interesting entry point—the fundamental drivers of gold demand, including diversification of reserves by central banks, have not disappeared.