Morgan Stanley radically revises its forecast for shipments of Chinese humanoid robots: from 28,000 to 50,000 units in 2026.
The humanoid robot market in China is experiencing explosive growth, forcing financial giants to revise their estimates at an unprecedented pace. Morgan Stanley has once again raised its forecast for shipments of Chinese humanoid robots for 2026 — from 28,000 to 50,000 units. This is already the second revision in recent months: in January of the same year, the bank raised the bar from 14,000 to 28,000 units.
The main driver of this acceleration is the avalanche-like increase in the number of Chinese companies announcing plans for mass production by the end of this year. Among them, Xpeng stands out, but the list is far from limited to a single player. Morgan Stanley analysts point to three key factors: confirmation of the commercial applicability of devices in real-world scenarios, active government support, and fundamental changes in supply chains that make production cheaper and more scalable.
Structural Shift Toward Full-Size Models
The forecast for market structure deserves special attention. According to the bank's estimates, the share of full-size humanoid robots (likely over 170 cm tall) will grow from 30% in 2026 to 50% in 2027 and reach 70% by 2028. This indicates that the industry is moving from niche, specialized solutions to universal machines capable of replacing humans in a wide range of tasks.
According to experts, China has surged ahead thanks to fierce domestic competition among local developers and aggressive government support. Large-scale early deployments of robots allow for the collection of critical volumes of data for training neural networks, which directly accelerates commercialization. Beijing has already launched a nationwide program shifting the focus from demonstration stands to real-world application of robots in factories, warehouses, and hospitals.
Against this backdrop, recent successes of Chinese giants are worth noting. Home appliance manufacturer Midea Group unveiled a six-armed industrial robot, the MIRO U, in December 2025, which is already being deployed at a washing machine factory in Wuxi. And in June 2026, Alibaba announced a set of AI models for controlling robots, calling the project a "full stack for embodied artificial intelligence."
My expert commentary: Morgan Stanley's revision is not just a numerical adjustment, but a signal that we are witnessing the beginning of a real industrial revolution. If in 2025 humanoid robots were mostly expensive toys for PR stunts, by 2027-2028 they will become a standard tool in Chinese factories. Investors should closely monitor companies that already have contracts to supply components for these systems, rather than just the manufacturers of final devices.