Morgan Stanley sharply raised its forecast for shipments of Chinese humanoid robots: from 28,000 to 50,000 units in 2026.
Analysts at Morgan Stanley have once again revised their expectations for the humanoid robot market in China, and this revision is truly revolutionary. According to the bank's latest report, the supply forecast for 2026 has been raised from 28,000 to 50,000 units. This is already the second significant increase in recent months: in January of the same year, the estimate was adjusted from 14,000 to 28,000 units.
Such an aggressive growth in the forecast is driven by a number of factors signaling market maturity. First and foremost, this is due to a sharp increase in the number of Chinese companies announcing mass production plans. In particular, automaker Xpeng has confirmed its intention to launch serial production of humanoids by the end of this year.
According to Morgan Stanley, the key drivers have been: confirmation of the commercial applicability of devices in real-world conditions, active government support, and significant changes in supply chains that have made production more cost-effective.
Of particular interest is the structural shift toward full-size models. The bank forecasts that their share of total supply will grow from 30% in 2026 to 50% in 2027 and reach 70% by 2028. This indicates that the market is moving from experimental and niche solutions to mass industrial applications.
It is important to note that Beijing is not merely observing this process but actively catalyzing it. A nationwide training program has recently been launched, designed to shift the focus from demonstration showcases to the actual deployment of robots in factories, warehouses, and hospitals. In my view, this is a decisive factor: the state is essentially creating the infrastructure for accelerated commercialization.
Additional evidence of this trend includes recent developments from Midea Group, which introduced a six-armed industrial robot, the MIRO U, for its factory in Wuxi, and Alibaba, which announced a full stack of AI models for robot control in June. All of this suggests that China intends not just to catch up with, but to surpass global competitors in the humanoid robot race.
My expert opinion: The humanoid robot market in China is transitioning from the hype phase to the phase of real industrial deployment. Morgan Stanley's forecast is likely still conservative, given the enormous investments from both the state and the private sector. In the next two years, we will witness a true boom that could completely reshape the landscape of global industry and logistics.