Gold has crashed below $4,000: the geopolitical premium has evaporated amid Trump's deal with Iran
The precious metals market is undergoing a massive correction. Spot gold fell to $3,972 per ounce during trading on June 24, 2026, firmly holding below the psychological level of $4,000 for the first time since November 2025. The decline began during the Asian session and accelerated after the release of key details of the framework agreement between the US and Iran.
In the previous session, the asset opened near $4,113 but then rapidly lost ground. Since reaching an all-time high of $5,608 in January 2026, prices have fallen by approximately 29%. A similar trend is observed in the silver market, with prices dropping below $60, confirming a general decline in demand for safe-haven assets.
Trump's Deal and the Collapse of the 'War Premium'
The catalyst for the sell-off was a statement by Donald Trump on Truth Social on June 24, in which he clarified the terms of the framework agreement with Iran. Key points: during a 60-day negotiation window, the passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz will be free, and unfrozen Iranian funds will be used exclusively for the purchase of American agricultural products — corn, wheat, soybeans, and other goods.
This clarification effectively eliminated the main source of geopolitical tension that had supported gold prices in previous months. The 'war premium' built into prices began to melt rapidly. Historical experience shows that as soon as signs of de-escalation in the Middle East appear, demand for safe-haven assets drops sharply — even despite persistent inflation risks and long-term supply disruptions.
Expert Opinion: Schiff Sees Opportunities
Well-known gold investment advocate Peter Schiff called the current correction a 'great buying opportunity.' In his view, the market underestimates persistent inflation, and expectations of aggressive Fed rate hikes are misguided.
Schiff believes that any politically motivated policy reversal will benefit precious metals more than stocks — especially given the current gap in expectations. He also notes that progress on opening the Strait of Hormuz has reduced short-term risks of oil supply disruptions, which has eased inflation expectations and temporarily weakened gold's appeal.
Technical Analysis and Forecast
The $4,000 level was an important psychological support after the rally of 2025 to early 2026. Its breach signals that the market has stopped pricing in the acute phase of the conflict with Iran. Strong US economic indicators support real yields and strengthen the dollar, which traditionally pressures non-yielding assets.
However, structural factors — in particular, continued gold purchases by central banks — maintain bullish interest in the long term. Short-term dynamics will depend on real progress in negotiations, but the current correction is already creating attractive entry points for patient investors.
My analysis: The drop below $4,000 is not a crash but a natural correction after overheating. The geopolitical premium was excessive, and the market is rightly removing it. However, fundamental drivers — de-dollarization, inflation, and central bank demand — have not disappeared. I expect consolidation in the range of $3,800–$4,200, followed by a resumption of growth once the market digests the Iran news.