Morgan Stanley once again raises its forecast for shipments of Chinese humanoid robots: now 50,000 units in 2026
Morgan Stanley analysts have once again radically revised their expectations for the Chinese humanoid robot market. According to the bank's latest report, the 2026 delivery forecast has been raised from 28,000 to 50,000 units. Notably, back in January of the same year, the estimate had already been doubled from 14,000 to 28,000. This pattern of revisions indicates that the sector's development pace is significantly outpacing even the most optimistic scenarios.
The primary driver of this sharp forecast increase is the avalanche-like growth in the number of Chinese companies announcing plans for mass production of humanoids by the end of this year. Among them is the well-known electric vehicle manufacturer Xpeng. Additionally, Morgan Stanley points to confirmation of the commercial applicability of the devices, active government support, and fundamental changes in supply chains that make production more scalable.
Structural Shift Toward Full-Size Models
The structural dynamics of the market deserve special attention. According to the bank's estimate, the share of full-size humanoid robots will steadily increase: from 30% in 2026 to 50% in 2027, reaching 70% by 2028. This indicates that the industry is moving from niche and experimental devices toward creating universal machines capable of replacing humans in a wide range of tasks.
China, according to analysts, has accelerated due to fierce competition among local developers, strong government support, and large-scale field deployments. The latter allows for the collection of critical volumes of data for AI training and performance improvement, which in turn accelerates commercialization. Notably, Beijing recently launched a nationwide training program aimed at shifting the focus from prototypes and demonstrations to the actual deployment of robots in factories, warehouses, and hospitals.
Against this backdrop, it is worth recalling recent developments: in December 2025, Midea Group introduced the six-armed industrial robot MIRO U for its factory in Wuxi, and in June 2026, Alibaba announced a set of AI models described as a "full stack for embodied intelligence." These examples confirm that China is building not just a manufacturing base but an entire ecosystem for humanoid robotics.
Expert Commentary: Morgan Stanley's forecast upgrade is not just a correction of numbers but a signal that we are witnessing the beginning of a real industrial revolution. If 2025 was a field of experiments, by 2028 we will see mass adoption of humanoids in logistics and manufacturing. Investors should closely monitor Chinese companies in this sector—they could become new leaders in the technological race.