Strategy (MSTR) shares have plunged below $100: what is behind the collapse and what are the risks
The largest corporate holder of bitcoin, Strategy (MSTR) led by Michael Saylor, has fallen below the psychologically important $100 per share mark for the first time since March 2024. This is not just an ordinary decline, but a serious signal for everyone monitoring the crypto-equity market.
Why MSTR is falling harder than bitcoin
The decline in MSTR shares coincided with bitcoin's movement near the $61,000 level. However, the correlation here is deeper than it seems. Strategy holds 847,363 BTC on its balance sheet — the world's largest corporate reserve. The company has effectively transformed from a software developer into a leveraged bitcoin asset. When bitcoin was rising, MSTR outperformed the market. Now, as BTC pulls back from its 2025 highs, the mechanism works in reverse.
MSTR shares have not just fallen in line with bitcoin, but with a multiplying effect. It is a leveraged proxy, and amid a decline in the underlying asset, investors are reassessing risks. The premium to net asset value is compressing, and confidence in the financing model is waning.
Main threat: STRC and capital raising issues
However, the scale of the crash cannot be explained solely by the decline in bitcoin. A key factor is the STRC preferred instrument, which helped the company buy BTC. Its price recently broke below its $100 par value. This means that borrowing costs for Strategy are rising, and attracting new capital is becoming increasingly difficult.
For investors, this is a critical moment: Strategy's bitcoin accumulation formula is entirely dependent on efficient access to capital. As soon as this source weakens, expectations for the company's growth decline. The mechanism that worked like clockwork for years is starting to falter.
Selling bitcoin: the "never sell" principle in question
Pressure intensified after Strategy disclosed the sale of 32 BTC to fund payments on preferred shares. The transaction amount was insignificant compared to total holdings, but the symbolism of this move was enormous.
For many years, Strategy built its reputation on the almost inviolable idea of "never selling bitcoin." Even a minor sale has cast doubt on this principle and drawn attention to the company's liquidity. For a strategy of holding bitcoin on the balance sheet, this could be a true turning point.
What's next: two scenarios
Investors are now watching two key levels. First, whether bitcoin can hold in the $60,000–$61,000 range. Second, whether confidence in Strategy's capital-raising strategy will remain.
If bitcoin holds, MSTR could see a sharp rise due to its leverage. But if pressure on bitcoin persists and financing questions remain unresolved, a price fixation below $100 could prove to be more than just a technical event.
My opinion: The situation around MSTR is a classic example of how leverage works both ways. As long as bitcoin was rising, everything was fine. But as soon as the market turned, the vulnerability of Strategy's model became obvious. If the company does not find a way to restore confidence in its financial instruments, we could see further pressure on the stock, even if bitcoin stabilizes. For long-term BTC holders, this is not a catastrophe, but for MSTR holders, it is a serious wake-up call.