Morgan Stanley has sharply raised its forecast for the supply of humanoid robots from China.
Morgan Stanley analysts have once again revised their estimates for humanoid robot shipments from China for 2026 — the forecast has now been raised from 28,000 to 50,000 units. This marks the second significant revision in recent months: in January 2026, the bank doubled its previous estimate from 14,000 to 28,000.
The main driver of this optimism is a sharp acceleration by Chinese manufacturers. Companies like Xpeng have announced plans to launch mass production of humanoids by the end of 2026. Additionally, Morgan Stanley notes confirmation of the commercial applicability of the devices, active government support, and structural changes in supply chains that make scaling more realistic.
According to the bank's estimates, the share of full-size humanoid robots in total shipments will grow rapidly: from 30% in 2026 to 50% in 2027 and 70% in 2028. This indicates that the industry is transitioning from experimental prototypes to mature industrial solutions.
A key factor in China's acceleration in this race has been fierce competition among local developers, large-scale deployments for data collection, and active government policy. Beijing recently launched a nationwide training program that shifts the focus from demonstrations to real-world applications of robots in factories, warehouses, and hospitals.
Initiatives by major players deserve special attention. In December 2025, Midea Group introduced the six-armed industrial robot MIRO U, which is already planned for implementation at a washing machine factory in Wuxi. And in June 2026, Alibaba released a set of AI models for robot control, calling the project a "full stack for embodied artificial intelligence."
My expert opinion: Such a pace of forecast revisions suggests that we are witnessing not just a trend, but a shift in technological paradigm. China, leveraging a combination of government support and aggressive competition, is rapidly turning humanoid robots from laboratory experiments into a real industrial tool. If the current momentum continues, by 2028 we could see a full-fledged industry with tens of thousands of commercially used machines, which will directly impact the labor market and production chains worldwide.