Bitcoin crashed to $59,000 amid DXY surge: analysis of capitulation and accumulation
On the evening of June 24, I recorded a sharp drop in Bitcoin to $59,060, which coincided with the US Dollar Index (DXY) reaching a 13-month high. This is a classic scenario where the strengthening of fiat currency puts additional pressure on risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
At the time of writing this analysis, the leading cryptocurrency has partially recovered, trading around $61,700. Most altcoins in the top 10 by market cap followed the flagship: Ethereum is holding near $1,650, BNB around $570, and SOL at $70.
Over the past 24 hours, the total volume of liquidations on the crypto market reached an impressive $1 billion, with $780 million coming from long positions. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has dropped to an extreme level of 12, indicating a predominance of panic sentiment among market participants.
Expert Opinions and My Observations
Technical analyst Joao Wedson notes that Bitcoin is trying to exit the capitulation phase. However, according to him, we are not yet seeing the "extreme scenario" of past cycles, where miners suffered significant losses and the asset entered a deeply oversold zone. If such a phase occurs in the coming months, it will likely be short-term, and only a few will have the opportunity to accumulate assets at attractive prices.
Data from CryptoQuant deserves special attention: the inflow of funds to Bitcoin accumulation addresses has reached an all-time high. This indicates panic selling by retail investors, while large players are actively absorbing supply. In the futures market, downward pressure persists, and no positive catalysts are expected in the near term.
Founder of MN Trading, Michaël van de Poppe, emphasizes that for Bitcoin to return to an uptrend, it needs to close the week above the 200-week moving average (200-WMA) — around $63,000. Until this level is breached, the market remains in a zone of uncertainty.
Let me remind you that US spot Bitcoin ETFs have closed in the red for the sixth consecutive week. As of June 18, net capital outflows from these instruments amounted to $90.66 million, reinforcing the bearish backdrop.
My professional opinion: The current situation resembles a classic redistribution phase, where retail investors panic-sell assets while institutional players accumulate them at reduced prices. However, to confirm a trend reversal, we need to see sustained growth above the $63,000 level and a reduction in pressure from the DXY. Until then, the risk of further correction remains.