Bitcoin has crashed to October 2024 lows: fundamental analysis and scenarios
On Wednesday, June 24, the Bitcoin price crashed to $59,023.98, hitting a local low not seen since October 10, 2024. At the time of writing, the asset had partially recovered to $61,469, but the overall picture remains alarming. The decline amounts to approximately 52% from the all-time high of $126,080 recorded in October 2025.
This is the third time in the past year that the price of the leading cryptocurrency has fallen below the psychologically important level of $60,000. The market is under pressure from a combination of macroeconomic and structural factors: a continued outflow of capital from spot Bitcoin ETFs and a broad correction in the technology stock sector.
ETF Funds Losing Appeal: Seventh Week of Outflows
Data from the analytical platform SoSoValue confirms the systemic nature of the problem. Over the past week, investors withdrew $182 million from spot Bitcoin ETFs. The negative trend has persisted for seven consecutive weeks. Total assets under management of the funds have shrunk to $77.5 billion, compared to over $113 billion at the end of 2025.
The pressure mechanism is simple: when retail and institutional investors withdraw funds, fund issuers are forced to sell physical Bitcoin on the open market. Amid extremely weak demand from large funds, this creates excess supply and additional downward pressure on the price.
Capital Shift and Regulatory Uncertainty
In 2026, there is a clear shift in institutional investor interest from cryptocurrencies to AI company stocks, initial public offerings, and prediction platforms. Liquidity in the crypto sector has significantly decreased. An additional negative factor is the uncertainty in the U.S. legal landscape. A key procedural vote on the CLARITY Act, which is intended to lay the foundation for crypto regulation, is expected within the next five weeks before Congress recesses. Postponing the review until fall would deprive the industry of a powerful growth driver during a critical period.
Institutional Support and Reduced Volatility
Notably, the current downturn feels less painful than previous prolonged bear markets. As noted by Sam Callahan, Director of Strategy and Research at OranjeBTC, the expansion of the institutional investor base dampens sharp price swings both on the upside and during declines.
"It's often said that this is the worst bull market and the best bear market. In reality, it's about Bitcoin's volatility decreasing compared to previous bear phases. The reason is that the investor base has grown, liquidity has increased, and the holder structure now includes fewer small retail participants," — Sam Callahan.
Whether the support zone formed by large players holds depends on the reaction of the traditional financial sector to corporate earnings reports from tech giants. A trend reversal requires that analysts' signals about reaching a market bottom translate into real buying volumes.
My comment: The current situation is not so much panic as a structural market restructuring. Institutionalization reduces volatility but also slows recovery. The key level of $58,000–$60,000 remains the last line of defense for the bulls. If it doesn't hold, the next support zone is $50,000–$52,000. However, fundamentally, Bitcoin is stronger than in 2022, thanks to a mature ETF infrastructure and growing corporate adoption.